Global Solar Capacity Additions Projected at 649 GW for 2026, India Overtakes US in Growth

Daily Summary: Global Photovoltaic Market Forecast (June 8, 2026)

Market Growth Projections

• 2026 Solar Capacity Additions: 649 GW (0.9% decline from 2025).
• Cumulative Capacity by End of 2026: Expected to surpass 3 TW.
• Forecast Growth for 2027: 688 GW.
• Forecast Growth for 2028: 743 GW.
• 2030 Total Capacity Forecast: Between 6.6 TW and 7.1 TW, with solar PV accounting for nearly 80% of the 4,600 GW of new renewable capacity added from 2025 to 2030.

Regional Developments

1. China
   • 2026 Additions: 321 GW (down 14% from 2025).
   • Cumulative Capacity: Expected to reach 1,520 GW.
   • Future Policy: Upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan may reset targets but is unlikely to reflect rapid growth.
2. India
   • 2026 Additions: 50 GW, overtaking the US.
   • Drivers: Supported by the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and increasing domestic manufacturing capabilities.
   • 2030 Target: Aim for a cumulative capacity of over 345 GW.
3. United States
   • 2026 Additions: Projected to fall to 44 GW (down 14% due to policy changes).
   • Market Challenges: Stricter eligibility rules for tax credits and increased project costs.
4. Europe
   • 2026 Additions: 80 GW (slight decline expected).
   • 2030 Target: The EU aims for 750 GW but faces significant shortfalls.
5. Middle East
   • Growth Rate: Capacity grew 28.9% in 2025, driven by projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
   • 2030 Target: Saudi Arabia aims for 130 GW under Vision 2030.
6. Latin America
   • Brazil: Led growth with 17 GW in 2025, primarily from distributed generation under net metering.
7. Africa
   • Capacity Growth: Added 11.3 GW in 2025, with significant contributions from South Africa and Egypt.

Technology Innovations and Trends

• Market Shift: Transitioning from cost-driven growth to infrastructure and skilled labor constraints.
• Data Center Demand: Increased power needs from AI-driven data centers are projected to significantly boost solar demand globally.
• Electrification: The rise of electric vehicles and heat pumps will increase electricity demand, creating further opportunities for solar integration.

Policy Impacts

• General Trend: Policies are playing a diminishing role in driving solar growth; economic factors are becoming more influential.
• Impact in U.S. and Europe: Policy reversals and subsidy cuts are negatively affecting growth projections.

Emerging Trends

• Growth Slowdown: 2026 growth is slowing, especially in China and the U.S., while India and the Middle East are expected to see significant gains.
• Market Dynamics: A complex transition with a shifting deployment landscape is anticipated.

Additional Resources

• Surge PV Market Forecast
• Solar Power Europe Outlook
• Wood Mackenzie Report