Tungsten Demand in PV Industry Set to Exceed 5% of Global Demand by 2026 Amid AI-Driven Growth

Key Market Forecasts

• Tungsten Demand and Pricing Power:
  • The photovoltaic (PV) industry is transitioning to larger formats and thinner wafers, with a projected penetration rate of tungsten wire in photovoltaics exceeding 80% by 2026.
  • The PV sector's demand for tungsten is expected to account for over 5% of total global demand.
  • The rising demand for tungsten is driven by its critical role in high-performance applications, including cutting tools and advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
• AI and Economic Growth:
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) is significantly influencing economic growth and capital expenditure (capex).
  • The global semiconductor market is projected to approach $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related chip demand driving this growth.
  • The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global electricity demand will rise by approximately 3.7% in 2026, emphasizing the need for secure energy sources to support AI and other sectors.
• Investment Trends:
  • AI has attracted nearly half of global venture funding, reaching about $203 billion by the end of 2025.
  • This trend indicates a concentration of capital in AI, making fundraising more challenging for non-AI sectors.

Emerging Trends in the Solar PV Market

• Technological Advancements:
  • The shift towards solid-state batteries is notable, although commercialization remains a challenge due to high production costs and technical barriers.
  • The equipment value per GWh at the pilot stage is currently around 500–600 million RMB, expected to drop with mass production.
• Cost Factors:
  • The cost of high-silicon-content silicon-carbon anodes and lithium metal anodes remains high.
  • Prices exceed 400,000 RMB per ton for silicon-carbon anodes and over 600,000 RMB per ton for lithium metal anodes.
• Geopolitical and Economic Influences:
  • Geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are likely to sustain momentum in precious metals and technology sectors.
  • Energy transition trends may continue to impact oil markets.

Conclusion

The global photovoltaic market in 2026 is characterized by a strong demand for tungsten, significant impacts from AI on economic growth and energy consumption, and ongoing technological advancements in battery technologies. Investors and stakeholders in the solar PV market should be aware of the challenges and opportunities presented by these trends as they navigate the evolving landscape.