AsianFin -- China’s export growth cooled in August, signaling that the temporary lift from Beijing’s tariff truce with the United States is fading and intensifying calls for additional fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter.
According to official data, outbound shipments from China rose 4.4% year-on-year in August, below the 5% increase forecast in a Reuters poll and marking the slowest growth in six months. This compares with a stronger 7.2% rise in July. Imports also slowed, climbing just 1.3% versus 4.1% a month earlier, falling short of economists’ predicted 3% increase.
The slowdown comes amid ongoing pressure from U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump. Multiple rounds of tariffs and other trade restrictions on Chinese goods have weighed heavily on China’s export-oriented economy. Domestic demand has remained tepid, leaving policymakers in Beijing with limited support from internal consumption.
The temporary respite from escalating trade tensions came with the U.S.-China tariff truce agreed on August 11, which paused further duties for 90 days. Under the agreement, U.S. tariffs of 30% on certain Chinese imports and Chinese duties of 10% on U.S. goods remain in place. Yet, the two sides appear to be struggling to define a path beyond the current pause, and August’s weaker export performance suggests the truce may not provide a long-term boost.
Economists say the slowdown underscores the vulnerability of China’s trade sector to external shocks, particularly when major markets such as the U.S. remain unpredictable. “Even with the tariff truce, export growth is decelerating. This could increase pressure on Beijing to deploy fiscal measures before year-end to stabilize the economy,” said a Beijing-based trade analyst.
The August data also highlight the broader challenges facing China’s export engine. While Chinese manufacturers remain competitive globally, uncertainties around U.S.-China trade, coupled with slowing demand in other markets, have dampened the momentum seen earlier this year.
With global trade still fragile, China’s policymakers are under growing pressure to act. Analysts suggest that measures could include increased infrastructure spending, targeted tax incentives for exporters, and additional support for domestic consumption to offset the impact of weakening overseas demand.
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