NextFin News - American households have absorbed an average of $447.19 in additional energy costs since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict three months ago, according to a Moody’s Analytics study shared exclusively with CNBC. The data reveals that the multimonth war has effectively wiped out the financial gains many families expected from recent fiscal policy, as surging fuel prices and airline fares extract nearly $60 billion from the domestic economy.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, warned that the financial strain is reaching a tipping point for many consumers. Zandi, a veteran economist known for his centrist, data-driven approach and frequent testimony before Congress, noted that if energy prices remain at these elevated levels, the annualized hit to the average household could climb to nearly $2,000. His analysis suggests that the current spike has already neutralized the $384 average boost households received from tax returns under U.S. President Trump’s 2025 tax legislation.
The primary driver of this household burden is the retail gasoline market. According to AAA data, the average price for a gallon of unleaded fuel reached $4.39 on Friday, representing a 47% increase since the beginning of March. This surge at the pump accounts for roughly half of the total increase in energy spending. The impact is even more pronounced in the logistics sector, where diesel prices have mirrored the 47% jump, rising to approximately $5.52 per gallon. This has added more than $20 billion in indirect costs to consumers as delivery and transportation surcharges are passed down the supply chain.
While the Moody’s data highlights a significant drain on disposable income, some market participants suggest the consumer may be more resilient than the headline figures imply. Goldman Sachs analysts, while acknowledging that higher energy prices will "erode" consumer purchasing power, have pointed to the robust labor market and elevated wage growth as potential buffers. This perspective, which leans toward a "soft landing" scenario despite geopolitical shocks, remains a subject of debate among sell-side firms, many of whom are closely watching for signs of a broader pullback in discretionary spending.
The aviation sector has also become a significant source of inflationary pressure. Rising jet fuel costs have forced airlines to hike fares by more than 20% compared to last year, resulting in an additional $10 billion in consumer expenditures. For many middle-income families, these compounding costs are forcing a reliance on credit and savings to maintain standard consumption patterns. As the conflict continues to disrupt global energy flows, the sustainability of the current U.S. economic expansion remains tethered to the volatility of the Strait of Hormuz.
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