Cutting-Edge Technologies
NextFin News - Apple is preparing to unveil its first foldable iPhone, but the launch is unlikely to lure existing foldable Android users away from Samsung and Huawei devices, according to the view presented this week on the Windsor program. The argument cuts against the conventional narrative that Apple's entry will raid rivals' customer bases. The real prize is not Samsung's foldable installed base - it is Apple's own iPhone users and the premium value pool of a category that still accounts for only a sliver of the global smartphone market.
Apple's foldable phone is expected to be announced at the company's Cupertino headquarters this week alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, marking one of the biggest changes to the flagship device that generates roughly half of the company's revenue. The launch arrives as the foldable category reaches an inflection point: worldwide foldable smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 30% year over year in 2026, boosted by Apple's entry and Samsung's upcoming tri-fold device, according to the International Data Corporation. Yet the Windsor view holds that the customers most likely to buy Apple's foldable are not the people already folding Galaxy Z Folds or Huawei Mate Xs. They are iPhone users who have waited for Apple's take on the form factor, and mainstream buyers who sat out the category's early, compromise-filled years. That distinction reframes what Apple's entry means for the competitive landscape - and for investors deciding whether this launch is a share war or a market-expansion event.
Why Foldable Android Users Are Not Likely to Switch
The case that Apple cannot easily poach foldable Android users rests on three pillars: ecosystem lock-in, form-factor familiarity, and the cost of abandoning a workflow already rebuilt around a foldable device.
First, the ecosystem. An Android foldable owner has already invested in Google's services, Android-specific app purchases, and in many cases a Samsung or Huawei hardware ecosystem spanning watches, earbuds, and tablets. Moving to iOS means re-buying apps, migrating files, and relearning workflows - friction that a new hardware shape alone does not overcome. A foldable is a form factor, not an ecosystem bridge.
Second, the foldable experience itself creates a different kind of loyalty. Someone who has adapted to a book-type or clamshell device has optimized their daily routine around a larger inner display, split-screen multitasking, and specific hinge angles. Counterpoint Research noted that consumer familiarity with the book-type form factor has "steadily increased" as OEMs invested in large-screen software optimization. An Apple foldable running iOS will not replicate the Android multitasking conventions those users have already internalized.
Third, timing works against a raid on the installed base. Samsung and Huawei have sold foldables since 2019 - seven years of category ownership before Apple arrives. By the time Apple's foldable reaches stores, the most form-factor-curious Android users will already have bought, and adapted to, a rival device. Apple is not entering an empty room; it is arriving after the early adopters have chosen.
"Foldables still represent only a small fraction of the overall smartphone market, suggesting the category has considerable room for expansion as vendors continue improving device durability, usability and software experiences," said Liz Lee, associate director at Counterpoint Research. "As Apple's entry approaches, competition will shift toward book-type foldables, while North America is set to see the most significant disruption."
That final clause is the geographic tell. North America is where Apple's home-field advantage is strongest and where foldable penetration has lagged China. The disruption Counterpoint anticipates is not Samsung's loyal Korean or Chinese foldable base defecting to Apple - it is a large pool of North American iPhone users who have never owned any foldable, finally given an Apple-branded reason to try one.
Where Apple's Foldable Demand Actually Comes From
Market researchers are explicit on this point. Counterpoint Research stated that early demand for Apple's foldable iPhone is expected to come primarily from existing iPhone users, with some Android users considering book-type foldables evaluating Apple as an alternative. And in its panel-shipment forecast, Counterpoint put the point bluntly: "Apple will not immediately displace Samsung and Huawei, but it will expand the market and shift competition toward higher ASPs, stronger reliability and lower-crease wide book-type foldables."
IDC projects Apple will capture more than 22% unit share and a striking 34% of the foldables market value in its first year - a gap between unit share and value share that reveals where the money is. Foldable average selling prices run roughly three times higher than a standard smartphone, according to IDC, with an expected average price point of about $2,400. Winning 34% of the value pool with a little over 20% of units means Apple's foldable will sit at the top of the price ladder - consistent with the $2,000-plus starting price projected by analysts including Ming-Chi Kuo and TrendForce. Apple is not competing for volume; it is competing for the premium margin layer of the category.
That strategy is familiar. Apple has historically entered emerging categories late - the smartwatch, the wireless headphone, the tablet were all established by others - and won by packaging the technology for the mainstream rather than the enthusiast. The trade-off is that late entry cedes the innovator's installed base. The reward is capturing the customers who were waiting for a trusted brand to validate the category.
Citi analysts estimate Apple will sell about 5 million foldable units in the second half of 2026 and another 2.3 million in the first quarter of 2027. Against IDC's forecast of 20.6 million foldable units shipped in 2025, growing 30% in 2026, Apple's entry is additive volume - market expansion, not a zero-sum raid.
The Second-Order Effect: A Value-Pool Shift, Not a Unit-Share War
The first-order read of Apple's foldable launch is simple: more competition at the premium end, pressure on Samsung and Huawei. The second-order effect is subtler and more consequential. Apple's entry accelerates a shift in where the foldable category's profit pool sits, and it forces Android OEMs to defend the high end rather than expand the middle.
Consider the geometry of the market. Foldables were only 1.6% of the overall smartphone market in 2025. Even with 30% growth, the category remains niche in unit terms. But within that niche, the premium segment is where OEMs hunt for margins to offset pricing pressure in entry and mid-range phones. Apple's arrival at the $2,000-plus tier pulls the center of gravity upward. Android makers cannot respond by cutting prices without sacrificing the margin story that justified foldables in the first place.
The panel supply chain tells the same story. Counterpoint Research forecasts global foldable smartphone panel shipments will reach about 27.5 million units in 2026, up around 24% from 2025, with revenue rising about 48% to roughly $4.4 billion - growth driven not just by volume but by average selling price and mix improvement. Samsung Electronics is expected to lead panel procurement with about a 31% share, Apple to contribute around 29% in its first year, and Huawei to account for about 24%. Samsung Display has reportedly secured a three-year exclusive agreement to supply Apple's foldable OLED panels, according to industry reports - meaning Samsung profits from Apple's foldable success even as its own branded phones face a new competitor. The supply chain is hedged; the brand war is not.
There is also a regional rebalancing. China accounted for roughly 52% of global foldable shipments in 2025, but that share is forecast to fall to about 41% in 2026, while the United States nearly doubles from 12% to 23%, according to Smart Analytics Global. Huawei's foldable strength is concentrated in China; Samsung's is global but comparatively thin in North America. Apple's foldable is, in effect, a vehicle for shifting foldable growth from China-led to ecosystem-led - and the United States is the battlefield where Apple holds the advantage.
The Counter-Thesis: Apple's Second-Mover Power Should Not Be Underestimated
The strongest case against the Windsor view is that it underestimates what Apple does best: enter a category after others have educated the market, then take it mainstream. The iPod, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and AirPods all followed this pattern - late arrival, category redefinition. Samsung's mobile chief has publicly welcomed Apple's competition in foldables, a signal that the incumbent recognizes the threat.
There is also evidence that the switching barrier may be lower than the Windsor view assumes. A 2025 SellCell survey of more than 2,000 US iPhone owners found that 27.6% were considering switching to Android for a foldable phone; if Apple waits until 2026 to launch one, 20.1% would consider a Samsung foldable and 10.2% a Google foldable - 30.3% in total. That is proof that cross-ecosystem movement is already on the table among premium smartphone buyers. If Apple's foldable delivers on the rumored crease-free display, a 7.8-inch inner screen, and tight iPad-style software optimization, it could pull not only iPhone upgraders but also the Android-curious segment that was testing the foldable waters on the other platform.
Moreover, Apple's marketing spend and carrier relationships in North America dwarf those of any Android foldable maker. A foldable iPhone placed prominently by US carriers, bundled with trade-in credits and carrier financing, could reach buyers that Samsung's foldables - despite years of availability - never converted. The Windsor view is strongest on the installed base of committed foldable users; it is weaker on the larger pool of premium smartphone buyers who have not yet committed to any foldable brand.
But even this counter-thesis concedes the core point: the customers Apple wins are not, for the most part, people who already own and love a foldable Android phone. They are people who have not yet bought any foldable. The distinction determines whether Apple's launch is a share grab or a market expansion - and the data, so far, points to expansion.
What to Watch: The Signal That Would Prove the Windsor View Wrong
The Windsor thesis is falsifiable. The specific signal to watch is the buyer-origin mix in the first two quarters after launch. If more than half of foldable iPhone buyers are existing Samsung or Huawei foldable owners, the poaching argument is vindicated and the market-expansion view is wrong. A more observable proxy: if Samsung's or Huawei's foldable unit sales decline year over year in the quarters following Apple's launch, rather than merely growing more slowly, that would indicate Apple is taking share from the installed base rather than adding new users.
By time horizon, the picture splits. In the short term - the first two quarters - supply will be the binding constraint, not demand. Reports that mass production may not begin until August leave Apple a narrow window to ship before the holidays, and constrained supply will mute any share-shift signal. Over the medium term - calendar 2027, Apple's first full year of sales - the buyer-mix data will be clear; Counterpoint expects Apple's foldable share to more than double toward 40% as supply normalizes. Over the long term, the structural question is whether the foldable category escapes its low-single-digit penetration ceiling; IDC projects the category will grow at a 17% compound annual rate through 2029, versus less than 1% for traditional smartphones, suggesting the ceiling is a ladder, not a lid.
Three scenarios frame the outlook. The base case: Apple captures the projected 22% to 28% unit share, mostly from iPhone upgraders and first-time foldable buyers, and the category grows 20% to 30% in 2026 as researchers forecast. The upside case: Apple's crease-free display and ecosystem integration convert a meaningful slice of Android foldable users, Samsung's foldable growth stalls, and Apple approaches the 34% value share that IDC projects. The downside case: production constraints limit holiday-quarter availability, the $2,000-plus price caps the addressable market, and Apple's foldable becomes a high-margin niche within a niche - profitable, but not category-defining.
For investors, the practical implication is that Apple's foldable is best read as a margin and ecosystem play, not a unit-share conquest. It defends the iPhone franchise against Android foldable poaching - the very switching temptation the SellCell survey showed was already alive among iPhone owners - while opening a new premium tier. For Samsung and Huawei, the launch tightens competition at the top of the market without threatening their foldable installed base in the near term. And for the category, Apple's arrival is the validation that moves foldables from enthusiast experiment toward mainstream consideration - without requiring a single Samsung user to switch.
The foldable war will not be won by converting the converted. Apple's foldable iPhone is less likely to pry a Galaxy Fold out of a loyal owner's hand than to put a foldable into the hand of an iPhone user who has been waiting for permission to buy one - and that is a larger, more durable prize than a share raid.
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