NextFin news, Manchester, United Kingdom – On Wednesday, October 8, 2025, Britain's Conservative Party ended its annual conference in Manchester amid a deepening existential crisis. The party, historically dominant in UK politics, is now grappling with declining public support and the growing threat posed by the hard-right Reform UK party.
The Conservative Party, known colloquially as the Tories, has been a major political force in Britain for decades, producing iconic leaders such as Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher, and Benjamin Disraeli. However, recent years have seen a sharp decline in their fortunes, particularly following the 2016 Brexit referendum which triggered internal divisions and leadership instability.
Since the referendum, the party has cycled through four leaders, including Boris Johnson, who resigned amid scandals, and Liz Truss, who stepped down after a failed budget. The Conservatives were ousted from government in July 2024 after 14 years in power, suffering their worst general election defeat with only 121 seats in the 650-member House of Commons.
Political scientist Robert Ford of the University of Manchester described the crisis as "existential," warning that current polling trends suggest the party could be reduced to a small parliamentary group after the next election. A recent YouGov poll indicated that if a general election were held now, the Conservatives might be reduced to just 45 MPs, placing them fourth behind the Liberal Democrats and the Reform UK party.
Reform UK, led by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, has capitalized on anti-immigration sentiment and Euroscepticism, outflanking the Conservatives on the right and attracting defectors from the Tory ranks, including former MPs and councillors. This shift threatens to erode the Conservative base and reshape the UK's political landscape.
At the Manchester conference, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch sought to rally party members by announcing plans that a future Conservative government under her leadership would withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights and deport 150,000 irregular migrants annually. Despite these hardline proposals, many Westminster observers speculate Badenoch may not lead the party into the next election, expected in 2029.
Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, noted that the party's failure to deliver on promises related to immigration and the economy has contributed to public frustration. He also warned that the Conservatives face a deeper crisis than any in the past century, exacerbated by the rise of Reform UK.
The Conservative Party's predicament is compounded by the possibility that Reform UK could win a parliamentary majority in the next election, potentially relegating the Tories to a junior coalition partner or even further marginalization. Ford cautioned that such an alliance could be risky for the Conservatives, likening it to a "black widow spider effect" where the smaller partner is consumed by the larger.
As the party confronts this critical juncture, its future remains uncertain. The Conservative Party, founded in the 1830s and historically a pillar of British politics, now faces the challenge of redefining itself or risking irrelevance in the evolving political environment of the United Kingdom.
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