NextFin News - On January 19, 2026, official data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed that the country’s population declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2025. The total population dropped by approximately 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, marking an accelerated decline compared to 2024. The birthrate plunged to a record low of 7.92 million births, a 17% decrease from 9.54 million in the previous year, while deaths increased to 11.31 million, up from 10.93 million in 2024. This resulted in a natural population decrease of 3.39 million people. The birthrate now stands at 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the lowest since 1949, while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest since 1968. The data also revealed that about 23% of China’s population is aged 60 or above, underscoring rapid aging.
The demographic decline is attributed to multiple factors including the lingering effects of the one-child policy (1980-2015), a sharp fall in marriage rates—down 20% to 6.1 million in 2024—and increasing urbanization, which reached 68% in 2025. Economic pressures, high child-rearing costs in cities, and changing social attitudes have led many couples to delay or forgo having children. The government has responded with policy measures such as raising retirement ages, introducing child subsidies, and promising full medical cost reimbursements for pregnancy and fertility treatments. However, the total fertility rate remains around one birth per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
This demographic shift presents profound challenges for China’s economic and social systems. The shrinking labor force threatens to constrain economic growth and innovation capacity, while the rapidly aging population increases pension and healthcare burdens. Projections indicate that by 2035, the elderly population will reach 400 million, roughly the combined populations of the U.S. and Italy. The working-age population is expected to contract significantly, with the number of women of reproductive age projected to fall by more than two-thirds by century’s end.
China’s demographic trajectory mirrors trends seen in other East Asian economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, which also face ultra-low fertility rates. The structural nature of the decline suggests that short-term policy incentives may have limited impact without broader socio-economic reforms addressing housing affordability, work-life balance, gender equality, and cultural attitudes toward family.
Looking forward, China’s population decline is likely to accelerate, intensifying pressures on economic productivity and social welfare. The government’s substantial investment—estimated at 180 billion yuan ($25.8 billion) in 2026—to boost births reflects the urgency of the issue. Yet, reversing demographic trends will require sustained multi-dimensional strategies beyond financial incentives, including reforms in labor markets, healthcare, education, and urban planning.
For U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, China’s demographic challenges may have geopolitical and economic implications. A shrinking Chinese workforce could slow China’s economic expansion, potentially affecting global supply chains and trade dynamics. Conversely, China’s aging population may increase demand for healthcare technologies and services, creating new areas for international cooperation or competition.
In summary, China’s population decline for the fourth consecutive year, driven by a historic drop in birthrate and rising mortality, signals a deepening demographic crisis with wide-ranging economic, social, and geopolitical consequences. The data underscores the limits of current policy measures and highlights the need for comprehensive reforms to address the root causes of demographic decline and to sustain China’s long-term development trajectory.
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