NextFin News - In a landmark address to the House of People’s Representatives on February 3, 2026, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed officially acknowledged that Eritrean forces committed mass killings and widespread destruction in the Tigray region during the 2020-2022 civil war. Speaking before the lower chamber of parliament in Addis Ababa, Ahmed specifically cited the historic city of Aksum as a site of massacres, marking the first time the federal government has formally validated long-standing international reports of Eritrean war crimes. This admission represents a total reversal of his November 2020 claim that "not a single civilian was killed" during the military operations in the north.
The Prime Minister’s testimony detailed a harrowing campaign of violence and economic sabotage. Ahmed accused Eritrean soldiers of executing young people and systematically dismantling industrial infrastructure in towns including Adwa, Adigrat, and Shire. He further alleged that machinery was seized and factories looted, pushing the bilateral relationship to a "breaking point." According to the BBC, these comments come at a time of heightened military mobilization along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, as the former allies transition into a state of open hostility over territorial disputes and Ethiopia’s renewed demand for sovereign access to the Red Sea.
The timing of this admission is deeply rooted in the shifting geopolitical landscape of 2026. For years, the presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray was a shared secret that both Addis Ababa and Asmara denied to shield themselves from international sanctions. However, the Pretoria Agreement of November 2022, which ended the war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), did not include Eritrea as a signatory. As federal authority in Tigray has recently begun to shrink—with TPLF-aligned forces reportedly regaining control of key urban centers—Ahmed is now utilizing the narrative of Eritrean atrocities to distance his administration from the legacy of the war and to frame Eritrea as the primary obstacle to regional stability.
From an analytical perspective, this rhetorical shift serves three primary strategic objectives. First, it acts as a diplomatic olive branch to the international community, particularly the United States. Under U.S. President Trump, the American administration has maintained a transactional but firm stance on Horn of Africa stability. By acknowledging these atrocities, Ahmed seeks to mitigate the risk of further human rights-related sanctions while pivoting the blame for the war’s most brutal chapters onto Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. This is a calculated move to regain the moral high ground as Ethiopia seeks to renegotiate its debt and secure fresh development loans from Western institutions.
Second, the admission is a prerequisite for any lasting reconciliation with the Tigrayan population. The Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), led by Getachew Reda, has consistently argued that the continued presence of Eritrean troops in disputed border territories like Badme prevents the full implementation of the peace deal. By validating Tigrayan grievances, Ahmed is attempting to consolidate a domestic front against Eritrea. This internal realignment is essential if Ethiopia intends to pursue its stated goal of gaining sea access, a move that Afwerki views as an existential threat to Eritrean sovereignty.
Third, the economic data underscores the necessity of this pivot. Ethiopia’s economy, while projected to grow by 10.2% in 2026 according to government figures, remains burdened by the massive reconstruction costs of the Tigray conflict, estimated to exceed $20 billion. The destruction of the pharmaceutical factory in Adigrat and the industrial hubs in Adwa, which Ahmed highlighted in his speech, represents a significant loss of manufacturing capacity. To attract the foreign direct investment required for his "Homegrown Economic Reform" agenda, Ahmed must demonstrate that the era of internal conflict is over and that the state is moving toward accountability.
Looking forward, the acknowledgment of these atrocities likely signals a prelude to a more confrontational stance against Asmara. The "frozen conflict" that characterized the two nations for twenty years before the 2018 peace deal appears to be thawing into a "hot" rivalry. As Eritrea continues to deny the occupation of Ethiopian land, claiming instead that it is protecting its sovereign territory under the 2000 Algiers Agreement, the risk of a conventional interstate war is at its highest point in decades. For the global community, and specifically for U.S. President Trump’s foreign policy team, the challenge will be preventing this admission of past crimes from becoming the justification for a new, even more devastating regional conflagration.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.