NextFin News - A global hunger monitoring group, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), announced on Thursday, February 5, 2026, that famine has officially spread to two additional towns in Sudan’s war-torn Darfur region. The towns of Umm Baru and Kernoi in North Darfur have now crossed the critical thresholds for famine, joining the regional capital of el-Fasher and the city of Kadugli in South Kordofan as epicenters of starvation. According to the IPC, nearly 53% of children aged six months to five years in Umm Baru are suffering from acute malnutrition, while the rate in Kernoi stands at 32%. This escalation follows the October 2025 fall of el-Fasher to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which triggered a massive exodus of displaced civilians into neighboring areas already struggling with depleted resources.
The humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan, which the United Nations now classifies as the world’s worst, was further punctuated on Thursday by a deadly RSF attack on a military hospital in Kouik, South Kordofan. The strike killed 22 people, including the facility’s medical director and three medical staff members. Since the power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF erupted in April 2023, the death toll has surpassed 40,000, though aid agencies suggest the actual figure is significantly higher. Over 14 million people have been displaced, and with the addition of Umm Baru and Kernoi, the total number of famine-stricken areas in Sudan has risen to nine.
The expansion of famine into Umm Baru and Kernoi is not merely a byproduct of collateral damage but a direct consequence of the strategic "siege and starve" tactics employed by the RSF. Following the capture of el-Fasher in late 2025, the RSF has effectively severed supply lines to the hinterlands of North Darfur. By controlling the flow of commercial goods and humanitarian aid, the paramilitary forces have weaponized food security to consolidate control over the region. The IPC report highlights that the influx of displaced persons from el-Fasher into these smaller towns has overwhelmed local agricultural capacity, which was already crippled by three consecutive failed harvest cycles due to active combat in the fields.
From a geopolitical perspective, the crisis is being exacerbated by a shifting international landscape. Under the administration of U.S. President Trump, who was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, U.S. foreign policy has pivoted toward a more transactional and "maximum pressure" approach. While U.S. President Trump met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November 2025 to discuss a potential ceasefire, the administration’s broader strategy has included freezing immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, including Sudan, as of January 2026. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, this move, aimed at preventing "public charges," has inadvertently signaled a reduced U.S. appetite for deep humanitarian intervention, leaving a vacuum that regional actors like the UAE, Egypt, and Iran are rushing to fill.
The involvement of these external powers has transformed the Sudanese civil war into a crucible of regional rivalries. While Egypt and Saudi Arabia have largely backed the SAF as the guarantor of state legitimacy, the UAE has been repeatedly accused by UN experts of providing military support to the RSF. Simultaneously, Iran has supplied the SAF with Mohajer-6 drones to regain a foothold on the Red Sea. This "proxy-fication" of the conflict ensures that neither side feels sufficient pressure to negotiate, as external lifelines continue to flow even as the population starves. The IPC’s data-driven warning—that deaths from malnutrition-related causes have reached the threshold of two people per 10,000 daily—suggests that without a sustained ceasefire, the famine will likely engulf the remaining 20 areas currently listed as "at risk."
Looking forward, the trend for 2026 remains grim. The weaponization of the agricultural cycle means that even if fighting were to cease today, the food deficit would persist through the 2027 harvest. Furthermore, the Trump administration’s focus on countering Iranian influence near the Bab al-Mandab strait may lead to a policy that prioritizes military containment over humanitarian relief. Unless the "Quad"—the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE—can align their divergent interests to enforce a genuine aid corridor, the famine in Darfur will likely serve as a precursor to a total state collapse, with Umm Baru and Kernoi being only the latest dominoes to fall in a rapidly accelerating continental tragedy.
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