NextFin News - Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, February 13, 2026, Martin Jäger, the President of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), issued a stark warning regarding the escalating scale of Russian hybrid warfare and called for Germany to adopt a policy of active retaliation. Jäger revealed that German authorities registered a staggering 3,021 suspected cases of sabotage throughout 2025, a surge largely attributed to Russian actors and their decentralized networks of "Telegram agents." Addressing an audience of international security experts and policymakers, Jäger argued that the current strategy of observation and documentation is no longer sufficient to deter Moscow’s ambitions. He asserted that the BND must become more "operative," suggesting that Germany and its allies should prove their capability to inflict similar "pain" on the aggressor to restore a credible balance of deterrence.
The timing of Jäger’s remarks is significant, occurring as the European security architecture faces unprecedented pressure. According to Der Spiegel, the BND chief highlighted that Russia currently commands a global network of approximately 60,000 intelligence personnel, supplemented by a vast number of former military members and procurement helpers. This massive apparatus has been linked to a spectrum of hostile activities, ranging from cyberattacks on critical infrastructure to coordinated disinformation campaigns and physical sabotage. The "how" of this strategy involves leveraging digital platforms like Telegram to recruit low-level proxies for localized disruptions, making attribution difficult and traditional military responses inappropriate. Jäger’s call for a "whole-of-state" approach emphasizes that resilience must extend beyond government corridors to the general public, who are the primary targets of these psychological operations.
From a strategic perspective, Jäger’s advocacy for "painful answers" represents a departure from Germany’s historically cautious intelligence posture. For decades, the BND has operated under strict legal and political constraints, focusing primarily on information gathering rather than active measures. However, the data from 2025—showing over 3,000 sabotage incidents and more than 2,000 unauthorized drone sightings near sensitive sites—suggests that the cost of inaction has become higher than the risk of escalation. By signaling a move toward offensive counter-hybrid operations, Germany is attempting to close the "gray zone" gap that Russia has exploited. This shift aligns with a broader European trend toward "active defense," where intelligence agencies are empowered to disrupt adversary networks before they can strike.
The geopolitical context is further complicated by the current administration in Washington. With U.S. President Trump having returned to the White House in January 2025, European leaders are increasingly aware of the need for strategic autonomy. While U.S. President Trump has maintained a focus on "America First" policies, the pressure on European NATO members to handle their own regional security has intensified. Jäger’s rhetoric suggests that Germany is preparing to take a lead role in this new security paradigm, recognizing that a lack of a robust response to hybrid threats could be interpreted as weakness by the Kremlin. The economic implications are also profound; sabotage against energy grids or logistics hubs directly impacts market stability and investor confidence across the Eurozone.
Looking ahead, the transition of the BND into a more operative service will likely face significant domestic debate. Legal frameworks governing intelligence activities in Germany are among the most stringent in the world, and any move toward "tit-for-tat" retaliation will require new legislative mandates. However, the trend is clear: the era of passive resilience is ending. As we move further into 2026, we can expect an increase in state-sponsored cyber-countermeasures and a more aggressive dismantling of foreign influence networks. The success of this new doctrine will depend on whether Germany can effectively coordinate these "painful" responses with its EU and NATO partners, ensuring that the cost of hybrid warfare for Russia becomes strategically unsustainable.
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