NextFin News - The global nuclear landscape is undergoing a fundamental shift as major powers transition from post-Cold War disarmament to active arsenal modernization and deployment. According to the 2026 Yearbook released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on Monday, the number of operational nuclear warheads has increased even as the total global inventory saw a marginal decline. Researchers at the institute estimate that of the 12,187 warheads in existence, approximately 9,745 are now in stockpiles for potential use, with 4,012 currently deployed on missiles or at airbases—an increase of 100 over the previous year.
The report highlights a "worrying trend" where nuclear-armed states are increasingly taking weapons out of storage and placing them on active delivery systems. SIPRI Director Karim Haggag noted that while the absolute number of warheads continues to fall due to the dismantling of retired Russian and U.S. units, the "level of nuclear dangers and nuclear risks are rising." This shift suggests that the decades-long era of nuclear reduction is nearing its end, replaced by a period of qualitative improvement and heightened readiness among the world’s nine nuclear-armed states.
The United States and Russia continue to dominate the global landscape, collectively holding roughly 83% of all nuclear weapons. Both nations are currently engaged in multi-billion dollar modernization programs. However, SIPRI researchers point out that the U.S. program faces significant "planning and funding challenges" that could lead to further delays and cost overruns. Russia’s efforts have similarly been hampered by failed tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and the economic strain of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Despite these hurdles, both nations maintain approximately 2,100 to 2,200 warheads on high alert, ready for launch at short notice.
China is expanding its arsenal at a pace exceeding any other nation, with SIPRI estimating its stockpile has grown to 620 warheads from 600 a year ago. The institute suggests that China could potentially field as many ICBMs as the U.S. or Russia by 2030, depending on its force structure. While this would still leave China with only a fraction of the total warheads held by the two largest nuclear powers, the rapid expansion of silo fields in northern and eastern China signals a strategic shift toward a more robust deterrent posture.
Regional tensions in South Asia are also contributing to the buildup. India is believed to have expanded its arsenal to 190 warheads, and for the first time, researchers suggest India may be placing a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime. Pakistan’s stockpile remained stable at 170, but its continued accumulation of fissile material suggests an expansion is likely in the coming decade. Meanwhile, North Korea continues to pursue its goal of "exponential" expansion, with an estimated 60 warheads now in its possession.
In Europe, the collapse of the New START treaty—the last bilateral arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow—has removed a critical layer of transparency. This lack of data, combined with France and the UK’s plans to increase or modernize their own stockpiles, has led to a more volatile security environment. SIPRI expert Hans Kristensen warned that by "reaching for nuclear solutions," states are creating new risks and fueling a competitive arms race dynamics that had largely been dormant for thirty years. The report concludes that the role of nuclear weapons in international security policy is now more prominent than at any time since the height of the Cold War.
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