NextFin news, India achieved a record high in diesel exports to Europe in September 2025, according to data from ship trackers and trade sources reported on Thursday, October 2, 2025. This surge marks the highest diesel export volume from India to Europe since records began in 2017.
The increase was primarily due to refinery maintenance in Europe, which reduced diesel supplies and created a supply gap that Indian refiners capitalized on by boosting production and exporting the surplus. Indian refiners source about one-third of their crude oil from Russia.
Data from LSEG, Kpler, and trade sources indicated that diesel shipments from India to Europe ranged between 1.3 million and 1.4 million metric tons (approximately 9.7 to 10.4 million barrels) in September. This volume represents a significant jump from August, when exports were around 260,000 barrels per day, reflecting a nearly 63% increase over July and more than doubling year-on-year figures.
The rise in exports occurred amid US President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs targeting India for purchasing Russian oil. Trump enforced a 50% tariff on India with an additional 25% tariff specifically for Russian oil imports. India has criticized these measures, highlighting that China and Europe continue to import more Russian energy than India.
European refinery maintenance is expected to continue into October, with an estimated 550,000 to 600,000 barrels per day of crude processing capacity offline, up from about 400,000 barrels per day in September. This ongoing maintenance is anticipated to sustain demand for diesel imports from suppliers like India.
Shipping costs for diesel on the India-Europe route declined by approximately $10 per ton in late September, making exports more economically attractive. The cost to ship 90,000 tons of refined fuel fell to between $3.25 million and $3.5 million in the second half of September, down from $4 million to $4.2 million in late August and early September.
However, analysts forecast a potential decline in India's transport fuel exports in October due to increased domestic demand during the Diwali festival season. Ivan Mathews, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa, noted that while exports may fall month-on-month, higher product cracks compared to last year could incentivize refiners to maintain export levels.
Traders remain cautious about future diesel export volumes to Europe, especially in light of the European Union's 18th sanction package banning refined products derived from Russian oil. The impact of these sanctions on India's exports remains uncertain, with some traders suggesting that Middle East-origin barrels could replace Russian-derived products in the European market.
Overall, India's diesel exports to Europe in September 2025 reflect a strategic response to shifting global energy dynamics, refinery maintenance schedules, and geopolitical trade policies.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.
