NextFin News - Israeli officials have privately conceded that the ongoing military campaign against Iran may fail to trigger the collapse of the Islamic Republic’s clerical leadership, despite a week of intensive aerial bombardments and public rhetoric from Washington suggesting an imminent conclusion to the conflict. According to a senior Israeli official speaking to Reuters on March 11, there is currently "no certainty" that the war will result in regime change, as the internal security apparatus in Tehran remains largely intact and public dissent has been effectively suppressed by the threat of deadly force.
The admission marks a stark departure from the optimistic public messaging seen earlier in the week. While U.S. President Trump has signaled that the war could "finish soon," Israeli intelligence assessments suggest that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains a firm grip on both the country’s security infrastructure and its economy. This internal resilience has been bolstered by the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader, to a key leadership role, signaling a consolidation of power within the hardline establishment even as missiles strike the capital.
The disconnect between military success and political outcomes is becoming increasingly apparent. While Israel’s ambassador to France claimed on Tuesday that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are "ahead of schedule" in achieving tactical goals—including the degradation of Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile sites—these kinetic achievements have not translated into a popular uprising. In fact, the intensity of the bombardment may be having the opposite effect; potential protesters are reportedly staying indoors, fearing that any movement on the streets would be met with either collateral damage from strikes or immediate execution by Iranian security forces.
A classified U.S. National Intelligence Council report, drafted just before the February 28 launch of the joint U.S.-Israeli assault, warned of this exact scenario. The assessment concluded that even a large-scale military campaign would be unlikely to topple the theocratic government, noting that the IRGC is "deeply entrenched" and capable of surviving the loss of top-tier leadership. This skepticism is now being echoed in Jerusalem, where officials are recalibrating expectations for what an "end result" looks like in a war that lacks a clear domestic political alternative within Iran.
The strategic calculus is further complicated by the regional spillover. Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets into northern Israel and targeted Tel Aviv as recently as March 4, prompting an Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon. While the IDF has successfully eliminated key Hezbollah intelligence figures and destroyed tunnel networks, the broader "Axis of Resistance" continues to function as a cohesive unit. This suggests that even if the central government in Tehran is weakened, its regional proxies remain capable of sustaining a high-intensity conflict that drains Israeli and American resources.
For the Trump administration, the lack of a clear path to regime change presents a diplomatic dilemma. If the clerical government survives the current onslaught, the U.S. and Israel may find themselves in a prolonged war of attrition rather than the swift victory initially envisioned. Iranian authorities have already threatened to target the Dimona nuclear site if they perceive an existential threat to the regime, raising the stakes of the conflict to a level that could force a reassessment of the current military strategy. Without a credible internal uprising to complement the external pressure, the "freedom" promised to the Iranian people remains a distant prospect.
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