NextFin news, on October 21, 2025, an Israeli military source disclosed to NBC that Hamas retains an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 commando fighters in Gaza, despite having lost approximately 20,000 militants during the ongoing conflict. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have also succeeded in destroying up to 90% of Hamas's rocket stockpile, severely limiting the group's heavy firepower capabilities. The source emphasized that Israeli strikes have targeted not only Hamas's weapons but also critical production and smuggling infrastructure, effectively removing both the 'fish and the fishing rod' from Hamas's arsenal.
This assessment aligns with other expert analyses, such as those reported by n-tv, which estimate Hamas's fighting strength could be as high as 25,000. Despite these losses, Hamas continues to recruit and train new fighters, leveraging its entrenched social and political networks within Gaza. Approximately 80% of Hamas's tunnel infrastructure remains intact, providing strategic mobility and concealment advantages.
The persistence of a substantial Hamas force, even after sustained Israeli military pressure, reflects the organization's deep-rooted presence and resilience. Hamas's ability to replenish its ranks and maintain operational capabilities is facilitated by its control over Gaza's civilian population and its use of tunnels for logistics and surprise attacks. The destruction of rocket launchers and munitions has not fully neutralized the threat, as Hamas retains a significant number of short- and medium-range rockets and explosive drones.
From a strategic perspective, Israel's degradation of Hamas's military assets has been significant but not decisive. The continued presence of thousands of fighters means that Israel faces a protracted security challenge requiring sustained military vigilance and intelligence operations. The IDF's approach combines kinetic operations with efforts to disrupt Hamas's recruitment and supply chains.
Moreover, the political dimension complicates the military calculus. Hamas's embeddedness in Gaza's social fabric and its ability to exploit humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts for military purposes hinder efforts to isolate and dismantle the group. The ongoing conflict has also strained regional dynamics, with Iran and other actors providing indirect support to Hamas, further complicating Israel's security environment.
Looking forward, the estimated size of Hamas's remaining forces suggests that Israel must prepare for continued asymmetric warfare, including rocket barrages, tunnel incursions, and guerrilla tactics. The durability of Hamas's military infrastructure, particularly its tunnel network, indicates that ground operations will remain challenging and costly.
In addition, the recruitment of new fighters by Hamas points to a trend of sustained militancy that could fuel future escalations. Israel's strategy will likely involve a combination of military pressure, intelligence-driven targeted strikes, and diplomatic efforts to curtail external support for Hamas.
In conclusion, while Israel has inflicted substantial losses on Hamas, the group's remaining fighting strength and operational capabilities underscore the complexity of achieving a definitive resolution. The conflict is poised to continue with fluctuating intensity, necessitating adaptive military and political strategies to manage the persistent threat posed by Hamas.
According to the Israeli military source cited by NBC and corroborated by n-tv's expert assessments, the conflict's trajectory will depend heavily on Israel's ability to sustain pressure on Hamas's military infrastructure and on regional diplomatic developments influencing external support for the group.
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