NextFin News - The assassination of Ali Larijani, Iran’s former security chief and a key bridge to Western diplomacy, marks a point of no return in the escalating conflict between the Islamic Republic and the U.S.-Israeli alliance. As Israeli airstrikes continue to batter Iranian infrastructure, U.S. President Trump has issued a direct appeal to the Iranian people to "take over your government," effectively turning the streets of Tehran into a second front in a war that has already moved beyond the shadows. This strategy of encouraging domestic insurrection while simultaneously conducting high-intensity military operations represents a high-stakes gamble that the clerical regime will buckle under the combined weight of external fire and internal fury.
The timing of this push is not accidental. According to the Washington Post, the decision to launch these strikes was heavily influenced by regional allies who argued that the Iranian regime was at its most vulnerable point in decades. By targeting high-value individuals like Larijani, Israel is not just degrading Iran’s military command but is systematically dismantling the very cadres capable of negotiating a de-escalation. The message from Jerusalem and Washington is clear: there is no middle ground, and the only acceptable outcome is the total collapse of the current order. However, this "maximum pressure" 2.0 comes with a chilling disregard for the civilian cost of such a transition.
Inside Iran, the atmosphere is one of profound despair. While many Iranians harbor deep-seated grievances against a regime that has spent years prioritizing regional proxy wars over domestic economic stability, the prospect of a foreign-backed revolution is viewed with skepticism. Reports from Democracy Now! suggest that the Iranian population feels trapped between a repressive state that has shown no hesitation in using lethal force against its own citizens and a foreign coalition that is bombing their cities. The regime’s security apparatus, though shaken by the loss of Larijani, remains a formidable force of suppression, and the call for protests is essentially an invitation for civilians to face machine guns with little more than slogans.
The geopolitical calculus behind this encouragement of protest is rooted in the belief that the regime’s legitimacy has evaporated. U.S. President Trump’s rhetoric mirrors the "Count Me In" sentiment of his domestic base, framing the Iranian struggle as a populist uprising that only needs a final push. Yet, the lack of a cohesive opposition leadership within Iran makes this strategy look less like a planned transition and more like a recipe for prolonged chaos. If the regime does not fall quickly, the result may not be a democratic dawn but a fragmented state, similar to the post-intervention scenarios seen in Libya or Syria, which would create a power vacuum in the heart of the Middle East.
For Israel, the goal is the permanent neutralization of the "Axis of Resistance." By forcing the regime to fight for its survival at home, Jerusalem hopes to sever the supply lines to Hezbollah and other regional proxies. But the risk of a cornered regime should not be underestimated. As the strikes continue and the calls for revolution grow louder, the likelihood of a desperate, asymmetric retaliation against regional oil infrastructure or maritime corridors increases. The strategy of inciting a population that is already being "slaughtered" by its own government, as noted by De Morgen, may succeed in toppling the mullahs, but it leaves unanswered the question of what—or who—will be left to pick up the pieces.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.
