NextFin News - In a decisive move to reshape the Italian political landscape, the ruling center-right coalition officially deposited a new electoral reform bill at the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate on February 26, 2026. The proposal, spearheaded by key figures including Maurizio Gasparri of Forza Italia, seeks to dismantle the current "Rosatellum" system in favor of a proportional framework augmented by a robust majority bonus. According to Il Sole 24 Ore, the draft legislation aims to ensure executive stability by awarding 70 additional seats in the Chamber and 35 in the Senate to any coalition that surpasses 40% of the total vote. In instances where no group reaches this threshold but two coalitions fall between 35% and 40%, a runoff ballot would determine the winner of the majority prize.
The timing of this legislative push is critical. As Italy navigates a complex post-pandemic recovery and seeks to maintain its influence within the European Union, the coalition argues that the current system’s reliance on uninominal colleges has failed to prevent legislative paralysis. By shifting to a proportional model with a 3% entry threshold, the reform attempts to balance representativeness with the necessity of a clear governing mandate. Notably, the bill maintains "blocked lists," meaning voters will choose parties rather than individual candidates, and requires coalitions to officially name their candidate for Prime Minister alongside their governing program before the polls open.
From an analytical perspective, this reform represents a calculated attempt to institutionalize the "Premiership" model. By capping the majority bonus at 230 seats in the Chamber and 114 in the Senate, the proposal seeks to avoid the constitutional pitfalls that led the Italian Constitutional Court to strike down previous iterations like the "Porcellum" and "Italicum." The 40% trigger is a direct response to past judicial rulings that demanded a reasonable relationship between votes cast and seats awarded. However, the inclusion of a runoff (ballottaggio) for coalitions reaching at least 35% introduces a high-stakes secondary contest that could fundamentally alter Italian campaigning, forcing smaller centrist parties to pick sides earlier in the cycle.
The economic implications of such a shift are profound. International markets and credit rating agencies have historically penalized Italy for its "revolving door" governments, which average a lifespan of just over a year. A system that guarantees a five-year horizon for a winning coalition provides the policy continuity necessary for long-term fiscal reforms and the efficient deployment of EU recovery funds. By linking the Prime Minister’s name directly to the program, the center-right is betting that transparency will translate into market confidence. Yet, the opposition, led by Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party, has already labeled the text "unacceptable," arguing that the lack of candidate preferences further alienates an already disillusioned electorate.
Looking forward, the success of this reform depends on its ability to survive parliamentary scrutiny and potential constitutional challenges. The reliance on blocked lists remains a point of contention; while they provide party leaders with tighter control over their delegations, they risk deepening the divide between the public and the political class. If passed, the law will likely consolidate Italy into a bipolar system, squeezing out independent third-pole movements that cannot meet the 3% threshold or compete in a runoff. As U.S. President Trump continues to emphasize bilateral stability in transatlantic relations, a more predictable Italian executive could strengthen Rome’s hand in negotiations with Washington and Brussels alike. The coming months will determine if this proposal is a genuine blueprint for stability or a tactical maneuver to preserve the current coalition's grip on power.
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