NextFin News - In a decisive move to consolidate state authority, the Lebanese government announced on Monday, February 16, 2026, that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will require at least four months to implement the second phase of disarming Hezbollah. The announcement followed a marathon five-hour cabinet session at the presidential palace in Baabda, where Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal presented a strategic roadmap to extend the state’s monopoly on arms to the regions between the Litani and Awali rivers. This development comes as U.S. President Trump’s administration intensifies pressure on Beirut to fulfill the terms of the November 2024 ceasefire that ended the devastating conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed group.
According to The National, General Haykal informed the cabinet that while the first phase—covering the area south of the Litani River—was completed last month with Hezbollah’s tactical compliance, the second phase will be significantly more delicate. Information Minister Paul Morcos confirmed that the four-month timeframe is an estimate that could extend up to eight months depending on ground obstacles, potential Israeli military responses, and the availability of resources. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who recently toured southern border villages, emphasized that the initiative is not merely a military deployment but a broader effort to restore civil institutions, schools, and hospitals to the war-torn region.
The push for disarmament has met with immediate and sharp condemnation from Hezbollah’s leadership. In a televised address marking the anniversary of the group’s fallen commanders, Secretary General Naim Qassem described the government’s focus on disarmament as a “grave mistake” and a “sin” that serves Israeli interests. Qassem argued that the state should prioritize ending Israeli airspace violations and the occupation of border outposts rather than attempting to strip the “resistance” of its defensive capabilities. Despite the group’s weakened state following the 2024 war, Qassem maintained that Hezbollah remains ready to defend itself, signaling a potential for internal friction as the army moves into the group’s traditional heartlands.
The logistical and political complexity of this disarmament phase cannot be overstated. Unlike the first phase, which was largely a buffer zone established under international scrutiny, the area south of the Awali River includes densely populated Shiite strongholds where Hezbollah’s social and military infrastructure is deeply embedded. The LAF is essentially attempting to perform a surgical extraction of a military apparatus from a civilian landscape while maintaining a fragile domestic peace. The cabinet itself remains a microcosm of Lebanon’s sectarian divisions, containing ministers who are staunchly anti-Hezbollah alongside those nominated by the group and its ally, the Amal Movement.
From a geopolitical perspective, the timeline set by Haykal is a calculated signal to both Washington and Jerusalem. U.S. President Trump has made the neutralization of Hezbollah a cornerstone of his Middle East policy, linking future Lebanese economic aid to the success of the disarmament process. For Israel, the four-to-eight-month window serves as a benchmark for the ceasefire’s viability. If the LAF fails to show tangible progress in dismantling Hezbollah’s missile infrastructure and weapon caches in this second zone, the risk of renewed Israeli preemptive strikes remains high. Recent reports from Israel National News indicate that the Israeli military continues to monitor Hezbollah’s attempts to rebuild its strength, occasionally conducting targeted strikes against perceived violations.
The economic dimension of this security transition is equally critical. Prime Minister Salam’s insistence that “the state came to the south to stay” is a bid to attract international reconstruction funds. Investors and donor nations have long cited the “state within a state” phenomenon as the primary barrier to Lebanon’s financial recovery. By setting a concrete timeline for disarmament, the Lebanese government is attempting to prove its sovereignty to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and private capital markets. However, the success of this plan hinges on the LAF’s ability to avoid a direct civil confrontation, which would evaporate any remaining investor confidence.
Looking ahead, the next four months will determine whether Lebanon can transition from a theater of proxy warfare to a functioning sovereign state. The most likely scenario involves a series of negotiated “withdrawals” where Hezbollah moves its heavy weaponry further north or underground, allowing the LAF to claim symbolic victories. However, if the LAF attempts a forced disarmament of Hezbollah’s elite units or intelligence hubs, the risk of a domestic security collapse is substantial. The international community, led by the U.S. President, will likely maintain a policy of “calibrated pressure,” providing the LAF with the technical and financial support needed to expand its footprint while keeping a wary eye on Hezbollah’s enduring influence in the Lebanese parliament and cabinet.
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