NextFin News - On January 13, 2026, the Netherlands officially formed a minority government following the snap parliamentary elections held on October 29, 2025. The coalition comprises the social-liberal party D66, the center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA). Despite D66’s surprising electoral victory, the coalition holds only 66 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, falling short by 10 seats of the majority threshold required to pass legislation. The situation is even more precarious in the Senate, where the government lacks 16 votes.
Rob Jetten, leader of D66 and the designated Prime Minister, acknowledged the difficulties ahead, emphasizing the need for hard work and quality proposals to secure parliamentary support. The coalition notably rejected including the right-wing JA21 party, which holds nine seats, to avoid shifting the government further right, despite the potential to ease legislative passage. This decision reflects a strategic choice to maintain a centrist and pro-European stance, especially important given the polarized political landscape featuring 15 parties in parliament.
The minority government must rely on situational alliances with opposition parties to pass key legislation. For example, climate policies may find support from left-green parties GroenLinks and PvdA, while stricter migration measures could be negotiated with more conservative factions such as BBB, JA21, or PVV. This ad hoc approach to governance introduces unpredictability and risks delays in decision-making.
Critics warn that the minority format could grant disproportionate influence to smaller parties, complicating policy coherence and increasing the likelihood of early government collapse. Historical precedent in the Netherlands shows minority governments often struggle to complete full terms; the last minority government under Mark Rutte lasted only two years, supported informally by the far-right PVV, a luxury the current coalition lacks.
From an international perspective, the new government’s formation is significant for Ukraine. Throughout the ongoing full-scale war, Dutch policy has consistently supported Ukraine’s defense and humanitarian needs, a stance unlikely to change given the coalition parties’ pro-Ukraine positions. Even the far-right PVV, now excluded from government, has not advocated ending aid, though it calls for the return of Ukrainian men. The government also faces the challenge of addressing the status of Ukrainian refugees after the expiration of temporary protection in 2027, with no current plans to revoke their residency.
However, the greatest risk to sustained Dutch support for Ukraine and other international commitments lies in the government’s inherent instability. The constant need for compromise and coalition-building in a fragmented parliament may weaken the Netherlands’ ability to act decisively on the global stage, potentially diminishing its influence within the European Union and NATO.
Looking forward, the minority government’s success will hinge on its capacity to navigate parliamentary fragmentation through flexible, issue-based alliances while maintaining a coherent policy agenda. The political culture may evolve toward greater collaboration or, conversely, face paralysis if opposition parties exploit the government’s vulnerability. Economic and social reforms, climate initiatives, and migration policies will serve as key tests of governance effectiveness.
In conclusion, the Netherlands’ minority government formation marks a departure from traditional coalition-building practices, reflecting broader trends of political fragmentation in Western democracies. While it preserves a pro-European and pro-Ukraine orientation, the government’s precarious parliamentary position introduces significant risks of instability and policy unpredictability, with implications for both domestic governance and international relations.
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