Nvidia Share of China AI‑Chip Market to Shrink to 8% by 2026: Report

Breaking NewsDec. 05, 2025

Summarized by NextFin AI

Nvidia's share of the Chinese AI-chip market is projected to decline sharply to just 8% by 2026, down from 54% in 2025.
Huawei is expected to dominate the market with approximately 50% share by 2026, reflecting significant competition.
AMD and Cambricon are forecasted to rank as the second and third largest vendors in the Chinese AI-chip landscape with around 12% and lower shares, respectively.
The decline in Nvidia's market share is attributed to U.S. regulatory constraints and increasing competition reshaping the market dynamics.

A new report from Bernstein Research predicts that Nvidia’s share of the Chinese AI‑chip market will drop sharply to just 8% by 2026, as Chinese competitors like Huawei gain ground.

According to the forecast, Huawei is expected to dominate with roughly 50% of the market by 2026. The emerging pattern also suggests that other players such as AMD (projected at around 12%) and Cambricon could rank as the second and third largest vendors in the Chinese AI‑chip landscape.

According to Bernstein, Nvidia’s market share in China’s AI‑chip market is estimated to be about 54% in 2025, down from about 66% in 2024.

This reflects a steep downward trend as U.S. regulatory constraints and competition reshape the market.

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Insights

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