NextFin News - In a move that reshapes the competitive landscape of the artificial intelligence hardware ecosystem, Nvidia has officially awarded the supply contracts for its sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) to South Korean giants Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. According to Chosun Biz, the U.S.-based semiconductor leader has effectively excluded Micron Technology from the initial rollout of its next-generation "Vera Rubin" AI platform, which is slated for mass production in the second half of 2026. The decision comes after Micron, the world’s third-largest memory maker, failed to meet the rigorous performance specifications required for the HBM4 standard, specifically the 11 gigabits per second (Gbps) data transfer speed threshold established by Nvidia in late 2025.
The exclusion of Micron marks a significant pivot in Nvidia’s sourcing strategy. While Micron had previously been expected to capture nearly 10% of the HBM4 market, semiconductor analysis firm SemiAnalysis has revised Micron’s projected share in the Vera Rubin cycle to 0%. Industry data suggests that the HBM4 supply split will now be dominated by SK hynix with a 70% share, while Samsung is positioned to take the remaining 30%. Samsung is reportedly preparing to begin mass shipments of HBM4 samples to Nvidia this month to finalize qualification, aiming to leverage its sixth-generation 10-nanometer-class (1c) DRAM process to regain the technological edge it lost during the HBM3E cycle.
The primary catalyst for this market consolidation is Nvidia’s aggressive escalation of technical requirements. As U.S. President Trump’s administration continues to emphasize American leadership in AI, Nvidia has pushed the boundaries of hardware performance to maintain its dominance over rivals like AMD. In the third quarter of 2025, Nvidia raised the HBM4 speed requirement to 11 Gbps. While Micron publicly claimed to have reached this benchmark, internal verification processes reportedly revealed stability and yield issues that did not meet Nvidia’s production standards. This technical bottleneck has allowed the South Korean duopoly to tighten its grip on the most lucrative segment of the memory market.
From an analytical perspective, Samsung’s inclusion is a critical "redemption arc" for the company. After struggling with yields and qualification delays for HBM3E, Samsung’s decision to bypass certain incremental steps and focus on the 1c DRAM process combined with an in-house 4-nanometer logic die appears to have paid off. Unlike SK hynix, which utilizes a partnership with TSMC for its base logic dies, Samsung’s integrated "one-stop-shop" model—offering both memory and foundry services—has allowed it to meet Nvidia’s 11 Gbps requirement more efficiently. According to SDxCentral, Samsung’s HBM4 efforts have even reached speeds of 11.7 Gbps in testing, potentially offering a performance buffer that Micron could not match.
For SK hynix, the 70% allocation reinforces its status as the preferred partner for Nvidia’s high-end compute. By maintaining an overwhelming lead in HBM3E production for the current Blackwell architecture, SK hynix has secured the capital and operational stability to scale HBM4. However, the market dynamics are shifting toward "custom HBM," where the memory is no longer a commodity but a bespoke component integrated deeply with the GPU. This trend favors companies with high R&D budgets and deep technical integration with logic foundries, a barrier to entry that is becoming increasingly difficult for Micron to surmount without significant capital expenditure.
Looking forward, the exclusion of Micron from the Vera Rubin cycle could have broader geopolitical and economic implications. As the AI industry faces increasing power demands—with the Vera Rubin platform projected to consume up to 2,300 watts—the efficiency and speed of HBM4 will be the deciding factor in data center TCO (Total Cost of Ownership). If Micron remains sidelined, the U.S. supply chain for AI memory will remain heavily dependent on South Korean production, a point of potential friction for U.S. President Trump’s "America First" industrial policy. We expect Micron to aggressively pivot toward HBM4E (Extended) development to re-enter the supply chain by 2027, but for the immediate future, the HBM4 era belongs to Seoul.
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