NextFin News - On January 15, 2026, researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, published a landmark study in Nature Climate Change that for the first time integrates ocean-related damages into the social cost of carbon (SCC). Led by environmental economist Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, the study quantifies the economic harm caused by climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems and infrastructure, revealing that these ocean damages nearly double the global social cost of carbon—from $51 to $97.2 per ton of CO2 emitted.
The research team incorporated a comprehensive range of ocean impacts including degradation of coral reefs, fisheries losses, damage to coastal infrastructure, and non-market values such as reduced nutrition from seafood and loss of recreational and existence values. The study used an economic model calibrated to various greenhouse gas emission trajectories and accounted for both market and intangible costs. The findings imply that in 2024, with global CO2 emissions estimated at 41.6 billion tons, ocean-related damages alone could amount to nearly $2 trillion annually—costs previously absent from standard climate economic assessments.
These ocean impacts arise from warming sea temperatures, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and increased severity of extreme weather events, all driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions. Such changes disrupt marine biodiversity, alter species distributions, and threaten critical ecosystems like mangroves, seagrass beds, and kelp forests. Coastal infrastructure, including ports vital for global trade, faces heightened risks from flooding and storm surges.
Beyond the aggregate economic figures, the study highlights the unequal distribution of harm globally. Small island nations and coastal economies, heavily reliant on seafood for nutrition and economic activity, face disproportionate health and economic risks. Nutrient losses in seafood—calcium, omega-3 fatty acids, protein, and iron—are linked to increased disease risks and mortality in these vulnerable populations.
Kate Ricke, co-author and climate scientist at Scripps Oceanography, emphasized the importance of the blue social cost of carbon as a decision-making tool. It enhances traditional cost-benefit analyses used by government agencies and private sectors by incorporating ocean-related damages that were previously unquantified. This framework enables more accurate evaluation of trade-offs in climate policy and corporate emissions strategies.
From an analytical perspective, the near doubling of the social cost of carbon underscores the critical role oceans play in the global climate-economy nexus. Historically, ocean damages were underrepresented due to challenges in monetizing ecosystem services and non-market values. This study’s methodological innovation in assigning monetary equivalents to these impacts fills a significant gap in climate economics.
The projected market damages alone could reach $1.66 trillion annually by 2100, with non-market losses adding hundreds of billions more. Importantly, the study notes that market damages and cultural or existence losses are not substitutable, indicating complex societal implications beyond pure economic metrics.
These findings have profound implications for climate policy under U.S. President Trump’s administration and globally. Incorporating ocean impacts into the social cost of carbon could lead to stricter emissions regulations, more targeted investments in coastal resilience, and enhanced support for vulnerable communities. It also calls for integrating ocean health into national and international climate frameworks, such as carbon pricing mechanisms and adaptation funding.
Looking forward, the study suggests that ignoring ocean damages risks underestimating the true economic burden of climate change by nearly half. As ocean warming and acidification accelerate, the blue social cost of carbon is likely to rise further, amplifying economic and social vulnerabilities. This necessitates urgent interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, marine scientists, policymakers, and industry stakeholders to refine models and implement effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.
In conclusion, the integration of ocean impacts into the social cost of carbon represents a paradigm shift in climate economics. It provides a more holistic and accurate valuation of climate damages, emphasizing the ocean’s indispensable role in sustaining global economic and ecological stability. Policymakers and industries must leverage this enhanced framework to better manage climate risks and promote sustainable ocean stewardship.
According to the study published in Nature Climate Change and reported by UC San Diego Today, this research marks a critical advancement in quantifying the full economic costs of climate change, urging a recalibration of climate policies worldwide.
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