NextFin News - Russia has accelerated its efforts to bring Belarus under comprehensive strategic control, leveraging the ongoing conflict in Ukraine to integrate Minsk’s military and economic infrastructure into its own. According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Moscow is systematically reducing the space for independent decision-making by the Belarusian government to prevent any deviation from a pro-Russian course. This consolidation reached a critical milestone on December 17, 2025, when the Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) system was placed on combat duty in Belarus, specifically at the Krichev-6 site in the Mogilev region. This deployment, confirmed by Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin and monitored by international intelligence agencies, serves as a dual-purpose tool for regional intimidation and the erosion of Belarusian sovereignty.
The tightening of control is not limited to military posturing but extends deep into the economic fabric of the country. Approximately 500 Belarusian enterprises have been fully integrated into the Russian defense-industrial complex. This includes a massive joint project to establish a drone factory capable of producing 100,000 units annually. Furthermore, Belarus has become a primary supplier of conventional munitions, providing Russia with roughly 480,000 artillery and missile rounds per year. According to Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), the Belarusian civilian economy has effectively been repurposed to serve Moscow’s military needs, allowing Minsk to reap economic dividends while surrendering its industrial independence. This structural dependency ensures that any potential change in leadership in Minsk would be unable to pivot toward the West without triggering a total economic and security collapse.
The deployment of the Oreshnik system illustrates the nature of this lopsided partnership. While Khrenin initially claimed that Belarus would have the authority to designate targets, the Russian state news agency TASS later retracted such statements, clarifying that operational control remains firmly with the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN). Analysts from the Jamestown Foundation note that the Krichev-6 facility is subordinated directly to the RVSN Main Command and U.S. President Trump’s counterpart in Moscow. This arrangement allows Russia to use Belarusian territory as a launchpad for strikes against Europe while shifting the burden of potential retaliation onto Minsk. By placing these assets in Belarus, Moscow also exploits a legal loophole: since Belarus is not a party to the New START Treaty, Russia can conduct missile operations with significantly reduced transparency and notification requirements.
U.S. President Trump’s administration has observed these developments with concern, as the militarization of Belarus alters the security architecture of Eastern Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently highlighted that Russia is using Belarusian territory not only for missile silos but as a coordination hub for Shahed drone strikes. Zelenskyy emphasized that the industry of Belarus is now a vital component of the Russian war machine, helping Moscow bypass international sanctions to acquire critical components. The integration is so thorough that experts now view Belarus as a de facto military district of the Russian Federation rather than a sovereign ally. This "creeping annexation" is reinforced by the presence of Russian personnel in mixed-unit uniforms and the dominance of Russian flags at military ceremonies on Belarusian soil.
Looking forward, the trend suggests a permanent shift toward a "Union State" that exists primarily on Moscow’s terms. The planned expansion of the Oreshnik presence to a full regiment of ten launchers indicates that Russia intends to use Belarus as its primary forward-deployed nuclear and conventional deterrent against NATO. For the global financial and political community, this means that Belarus can no longer be treated as a separate entity in risk assessments. The country’s economic fate is now inextricably linked to the Russian defense budget and the outcome of the war in Ukraine. As Moscow continues to block any attempts by Minsk to restore economic ties with Europe, the structural dependency will only deepen, making the eventual total absorption of the Belarusian state a matter of administrative timing rather than political debate.
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