NextFin News - Taiwanese officials are sounding the alarm that the island’s sovereignty could be used as a bargaining chip in an upcoming high-stakes summit between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Francois Wu, Taiwan’s Deputy Foreign Minister, stated in an interview on Friday that the administration’s primary fear is that Taiwan will be "on the menu" rather than at the table when the two leaders meet in mid-May. The anxiety in Taipei has intensified following the White House’s decision to reschedule the Beijing summit to May 14-15, a delay necessitated by U.S. military engagements in Iran and Venezuela that have stretched the administration’s diplomatic bandwidth.
The diplomatic friction comes at a moment of extreme market volatility, with safe-haven assets reflecting heightened geopolitical risk. Spot gold (XAU/USD) was trading at $4,717.605 per ounce on Saturday, April 25, as investors weigh the possibility of a fundamental shift in the Pacific security architecture. For Taipei, the concern is not merely rhetorical; it is rooted in U.S. President Trump’s "America First" transactionalism, which has previously seen long-standing alliances questioned in favor of bilateral trade concessions or geopolitical grand bargains.
Tang Kai-tai, Vice President at the Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies, noted during a seminar in Taipei that Beijing is actively attempting to shape the summit’s agenda to include a formal U.S. shift in rhetoric regarding "Taiwan independence." Tang, a veteran analyst known for his cautious, realist perspective on cross-strait relations, argues that China is leveraging recent meetings with Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party to present a narrative of internal Taiwanese division. While Tang’s view is influential among regional security circles, it does not yet represent a consensus among U.S. State Department officials, many of whom maintain that the Taiwan Relations Act remains the bedrock of American policy.
The KMT’s recent outreach to Beijing, led by Chairperson Cheng Li-wun, has added a layer of domestic complexity to Taiwan’s predicament. Cheng’s meeting with Xi on April 10—the 47th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act—was seen by some as a pragmatic attempt to lower the temperature, but by others as a dangerous signal to Washington that Taipei might be drifting toward a negotiated settlement. Michael Feller, chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy, suggests that the risk of near-term military aggression remains limited, but the risk of a "diplomatic concession" by a distracted U.S. administration is at its highest point in decades.
Skeptics of this "abandonment" theory point to the strategic importance of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry as a natural deterrent against any U.S. concession. They argue that U.S. President Trump, despite his transactional reputation, cannot afford to hand control of the world’s most advanced logic-chip manufacturing to Beijing. However, the precedent of the administration’s sudden shifts in policy toward traditional allies in Europe and the Middle East suggests that economic logic does not always dictate the President’s final decision in a closed-door summit.
As the May summit approaches, the Taiwanese government is intensifying its lobbying efforts in Washington, seeking public reassurances that the "Six Assurances" and the Taiwan Relations Act will not be diluted. The outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting will likely determine whether the current spike in gold prices is a temporary reaction to uncertainty or the beginning of a broader repricing of risk in the South China Sea. For now, Taipei remains in a defensive crouch, watching for any sign that its status is being traded for a trade deal or a ceasefire elsewhere.
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