NextFin News - In a high-stakes diplomatic maneuver aimed at ending nearly four years of full-scale conflict, U.S. President Trump’s administration has convened the first direct trilateral negotiations between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. The meetings, which commenced on Friday, January 23, 2026, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, follow a flurry of late-night diplomacy in Moscow and public sparring at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Despite the historic nature of the gathering, the Kremlin has cast a shadow over the proceedings by reiterating a non-negotiable demand: the total withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donbas region.
According to the Kremlin, the demand was formalized following a three-and-a-half-hour meeting in Moscow between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, stated during a press briefing on Friday that the exit of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions is a "very important condition" for peace. Peskov emphasized that without resolving the territorial issue according to the "Anchorage formula"—a framework discussed during the August 2025 summit between U.S. President Trump and Putin in Alaska—it is "useless to expect a long-term agreement."
The Ukrainian delegation, led by Rustem Umerov and Kyrylo Budanov, arrived in Abu Dhabi facing immense pressure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the status of the Donbas is the "key issue" of the talks. While Zelensky has signaled a willingness to discuss security guarantees and a potential demilitarized zone, he has historically resisted ceding territory that Ukrainian forces have defended at a high cost of life. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia currently occupies approximately 90% of the Donbas, but Ukraine still maintains control over roughly 20% of the Donetsk region, including strategic "fortress cities" like Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk.
The current diplomatic push is driven by U.S. President Trump’s desire for a swift resolution to the war. Speaking on Air Force One, U.S. President Trump expressed optimism, noting that both Putin and Zelensky now seem to "want to make a deal." However, the reality on the ground remains starkly different from the rhetoric in the UAE. Even as negotiators gathered, Russia launched a wave of 101 drones across Ukraine, hitting 12 locations and causing further damage to an already crippled energy grid. In Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported that nearly 2,000 apartment buildings remain without heating in temperatures plunging to -10°C, a tactic analysts describe as an attempt by Putin to freeze Ukraine into submission during the negotiations.
From a financial and geopolitical perspective, the "Anchorage formula" remains the primary point of contention. The original 28-point plan proposed in 2025 suggested a freeze of the front lines and a reduction of the Ukrainian military to 600,000 personnel. A revised 20-point plan, discussed in December 2025, introduced the concept of a demilitarized free economic zone in the Donbas under Kyiv’s administration. However, the Kremlin’s latest insistence on a full military withdrawal suggests that Moscow is seeking total administrative and military control over the four regions it claimed to annex in 2022, regardless of the current line of contact.
The economic stakes are equally high. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently highlighted a multi-billion dollar "prosperity framework" for Ukraine’s reconstruction, which hinges on a stable peace. Furthermore, the fate of frozen Russian assets remains a volatile topic. While U.S. President Trump has explored using these assets for a joint peace preservation fund, Zelensky has vowed to fight for their use in direct reconstruction. The lack of consensus on these financial mechanisms, combined with the territorial deadlock, suggests that while the Abu Dhabi talks are a significant step, the "last mile" of the peace process may be the most treacherous.
Looking forward, the success of the Abu Dhabi summit depends on whether the U.S. can bridge the gap between Russia’s territorial ambitions and Ukraine’s sovereignty requirements. If the Kremlin refuses to budge on the Donbas withdrawal, the conflict may transition into a frozen state rather than a formal peace, leaving the region in a perpetual state of geopolitical limbo. Analysts suggest that U.S. President Trump may leverage security guarantees—described by Zelensky as "95% done"—to persuade Kyiv to accept territorial compromises, but such a move would face significant opposition within the Ukrainian parliament and among European allies who fear that any concession will only embolden future Russian aggression.
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