NextFin News - On December 17, 2025, the Thai Ministry of Defence reported a sharp increase in Cambodian rocket attacks against Thai civilian villages in the eastern province of Sa Kaeo and other border regions, including Si Sa Ket and Surin provinces. The Cambodian military launched more than 120 BM-21 rockets on civilian areas in Sa Kaeo alone, resulting in substantial destruction of over 1,000 rai (approximately 160 hectares) of farmland and damage to numerous homes. At least two Thai soldiers were confirmed killed during these hostilities, and Thai officials condemned the attacks as deliberate targeting of civilians, labeling them as cruel and unacceptable conduct by Cambodia.
In response, the Thai military vowed to retaliate decisively, aiming to disable Cambodian military firing positions, logistics hubs, and support bases that threaten Thai civilians. This escalation comes amid ongoing clashes across 19 identified battlefield points along the approximately 800-kilometer Thai-Cambodian border, with the Thai military currently maintaining control of only four key locations. The intensified fighting has also disrupted earlier ceasefire efforts brokered with international mediation, including a deal promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump earlier in 2025.
The conflict's recent phase reveals the usage of truck-mounted BM-21 rocket launchers by Cambodia, capable of firing volleys of up to 40 rockets at a range of 30-40 kilometers, which allows for deep strikes into populated Thai border communities. Thai forces have escalated their military operations correspondingly, involving fighter jet strikes and naval engagements, including exchanges of artillery fire with Cambodian forces. Civilians on both sides have suffered casualties and significant displacement, with over half a million people affected by ongoing violence.
This border dispute centers on long-standing contested territories and culturally significant sites like ancient temple ruins, with both countries asserting sovereignty. The humanitarian consequences have prompted calls for international humanitarian organizations and ASEAN to intervene, although political complexities, including domestic instability in Thailand and the internal political dynamics in Cambodia, have complicated diplomatic resolutions.
The causes behind this escalation are multifaceted, reflecting historical territorial disputes dating back decades, exacerbated by political calculations on both sides. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's administration appears to use nationalist sentiment to consolidate power amid an impending political transition to his son, Hun Manet, while Thailand's military-led government under U.S. President Trump’s influence faces internal pressures that may affect strategic decisions along the border.
The use of indiscriminate weapons such as the BM-21 launchers, coupled with reports of anti-personnel mines in contested areas, highlights violations of international laws, raising concerns of potential war crimes and dangers to civilians. The burning of agricultural land by rocket barrages threatens local economies dependent on farming, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and long-term regional instability.
Looking ahead, if military escalation continues unchecked, the risk of a broader conflict with cross-border incursions and increased civilian casualties rises significantly. This will likely dampen regional economic activities, such as investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) that Thai officials currently believe will not be severely affected in the short term but face risks if tensions persist. The conflict may also invite further involvement by external powers seeking influence in Southeast Asia, complicating geopolitical dynamics.
The Thai military’s commitment to halt Cambodian strikes on civilians suggests an imminent intensification of targeted operations to degrade enemy rocket capabilities. This approach, while militarily rational, carries risks of collateral damage and escalation if diplomatic channels remain stalled. To prevent spiraling violence and humanitarian disaster, renewed and sincere mediation efforts involving ASEAN, the United Nations, and major stakeholders—including the U.S. administration under U.S. President Trump—are critical. The protection of civilian populations and adherence to international humanitarian law must be prioritized alongside security objectives to foster any sustainable peace in this volatile border zone.
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