NextFin News - Residents of Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region are bracing for a potential return to full-scale war as the fragile 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement shows signs of systemic failure. In the regional capital of Mekele and border towns like Debretsion, the "negative peace" that followed the two-year conflict with the federal government is being replaced by a palpable sense of dread. According to ABC News, local tour guides report dried-up bookings and empty ATMs, while farmers face critical shortages of fuel and fertilizer as supply chains buckle under the weight of renewed military posturing.
The escalation reached a critical point in February 2026, following reports of drone strikes in the Tselemti district and the temporary suspension of flights by Ethiopian Airlines due to clashes between federal troops and Tigrayan forces. The Tigray Interim Administration, led by Tadesse Werede, has publicly stated that while the region remains committed to peaceful solutions, it is prepared to defend itself against what it describes as federal breaches of the peace accord. Simultaneously, the federal government in Addis Ababa has accused neighboring Eritrea of mobilizing and funding armed groups within Tigray, further complicating an already fractured security landscape.
The current instability is deeply rooted in the unresolved provisions of the 2022 deal, specifically the restoration of regional borders and the return of displaced persons. However, the primary catalyst for the current friction is Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s increasingly forceful rhetoric regarding Ethiopia’s need for sovereign access to the Red Sea. Ahmed recently informed lawmakers that landlocked Ethiopia, with a population exceeding 130 million, cannot remain "geographically imprisoned" forever. This stance has been interpreted by Eritrea as a direct threat to its sovereignty over the Port of Assab, leading Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to dismiss the claims as "delusional" and pivot toward a surprising, if tactical, alignment with his former rivals in the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
From a macroeconomic perspective, the threat of renewed hostilities has already triggered a localized inflationary spiral. In Mekele, the price of petrol has surged by nearly 30% in a single week, reaching 220 Ethiopian Birr per liter as residents begin hoarding essential goods. This economic anxiety is compounded by a broader shift in global trade dynamics. As U.S. President Trump implements a new 15% tariff policy following recent Supreme Court rulings, the resulting pressure on emerging markets has limited the Ethiopian government’s fiscal maneuverability, making the pursuit of a "victory" or a strategic port even more politically attractive to the administration in Addis Ababa.
The geopolitical realignment in the Horn of Africa is creating what the International Crisis Group describes as a "powder keg." The traditional alliance between the federal government and Eritrea, which was instrumental in the 2020-2022 war against Tigray, has completely disintegrated. Eritrea is now accused of stationing intelligence personnel and troops deep within Tigrayan territory, effectively creating a buffer zone against federal incursions. This shift has left the TPLF split into rival factions, some seeking reconciliation with Ahmed and others looking toward Afwerki for protection against federal drone strikes.
Looking forward, the risk of a multi-front war is at its highest level since 2020. If diplomacy fails to address the maritime access issue, the conflict could expand to involve the Amhara region, where Fano militias are already battling federal forces, and potentially draw in non-African powers interested in Red Sea security. The United Nations and the African Union have called for immediate de-escalation, but without a concrete framework for shared port usage or a final demarcation of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, the Pretoria Agreement may soon be remembered only as a temporary pause in a generational struggle for regional hegemony.
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