NextFin News - U.S. President Trump has intensified pressure on the Caribbean’s longest-standing communist government, asserting that Cuba is "ready to fall" following the total cessation of subsidized oil shipments from Venezuela. This bold prediction follows a series of aggressive maneuvers by the White House, including the January 3, 2026, military raid in Caracas that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Since the raid, the U.S. Navy has intercepted and seized multiple tankers destined for Havana, effectively cutting off the 35,000 barrels of oil per day that previously sustained the island’s fragile power grid.
According to BBC News, U.S. President Trump issued a stark ultimatum via social media on January 11, stating there would be "ZERO" oil or money flowing from Venezuela to Cuba and urging Havana to "make a deal before it is too late." The blockade has plunged Cuba into its most severe energy crisis since the 1990s, with daily blackouts lasting upwards of 18 hours and the cost of basic goods, such as eggs, now equaling an entire month’s pension. While Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has publicly rejected the threats, calling Cuba a "free and independent nation," the ground reality in Havana suggests a state nearing systemic failure.
The current crisis is the culmination of a strategic shift in U.S. foreign policy, now colloquially referred to within the administration as the "Donroe Doctrine." By removing Maduro—Cuba’s primary benefactor—U.S. President Trump has successfully isolated the island from its regional support network. Historically, the relationship between Caracas and Havana was a "services-for-oil" swap, where Cuban doctors and security personnel were traded for Venezuelan crude. With Maduro in U.S. custody and the Venezuelan oil industry under new management, this barter system has evaporated, leaving a $2 billion annual hole in the Cuban economy.
From a financial perspective, the timing of this blockade is catastrophic for Havana. According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Cuba was already grappling with a "poly-crisis" involving a 70% decline in sugar production and a stagnant tourism sector that never fully recovered from the pandemic. The loss of Venezuelan oil forces Cuba to seek fuel on the spot market at international prices, which it cannot afford due to a chronic lack of hard currency. While Mexico has attempted to fill some of the void, the scale of the deficit is too large for any single regional partner to bridge without risking U.S. secondary sanctions.
The analytical framework for this collapse theory rests on the "domino effect" championed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The logic suggests that without energy, the industrial and agricultural sectors cease to function, leading to a total breakdown of the social contract. Data from independent Cuban demographers indicates a mass exodus is already underway, with population figures dropping at rates typically seen only during active warfare. This demographic drain, combined with the lack of fuel for transport and cooking, creates a volatile environment where the government’s ability to maintain order is increasingly questioned.
However, some geopolitical experts remain skeptical of an immediate regime change. According to William LeoGrande, a prominent Cuba specialist, Washington has been predicting the end of the Cuban government since 1959. The Cuban state has historically proven resilient during the "Special Period" of the 1990s, and the current leadership has shown a willingness to use charcoal and wood-fire cooking as a survival mechanism. The critical difference in 2026 is the lack of a global superpower like the Soviet Union or a regional powerhouse like Venezuela to provide a safety net.
Looking forward, the next six months will be decisive. If U.S. President Trump maintains the naval blockade and successfully deters other exporters like Russia or Iran from intervening, the Cuban government will face an existential choice: implement radical market reforms to attract Western capital or face internal unrest that could lead to a total administrative vacuum. The administration’s strategy appears to be one of "maximum pressure" designed to force a negotiated transition before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, signaling a return to a hemisphere where U.S. economic and military might dictates the survival of regional regimes.
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