NextFin News - A surge in immigration enforcement under U.S. President Trump has resulted in the loss of 668,000 jobs across the United States, according to a new report released Friday by the Brookings Institution. The study, which analyzes the economic fallout of intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity since the administration took office in 2025, suggests that the crackdown has disrupted local economies far beyond the undocumented population it targeted.
The report, authored by economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox, focuses on 86 metropolitan areas where immigration arrests saw the sharpest increases. The findings indicate that for every 1,000 undocumented workers removed or deterred from the workforce, approximately 70 jobs held by U.S.-born workers were also lost. This 0.7% decline in total employment in affected cities challenges the administration’s central premise that mass deportations would clear the way for American citizens to secure better-paying roles.
East, a fellow at Brookings and an associate professor at the University of Colorado Denver, has long maintained a research focus on the intersection of immigration policy and labor economics. Her previous work has consistently argued that the labor market is not a zero-sum game. In this latest paper, she and Cox contend that the "chilling effect" of ICE raids and checkpoints creates a vacuum in industries like construction, agriculture, and hospitality, where undocumented and U.S.-born labor are often complementary rather than competitive.
The Brookings Institution, while historically regarded as a centrist to center-left think tank, has faced criticism from administration allies who view its economic modeling as biased against restrictive border policies. The report’s conclusion—that the enforcement surge is a net negative for the U.S. labor market—represents a specific academic viewpoint that has not yet been adopted as a consensus among Wall Street’s primary sell-side firms or official government agencies. Many conservative economists argue that the long-term reduction in labor supply will eventually force a "wage push" that benefits low-skilled American workers, a scenario the Brookings report suggests has yet to materialize.
The mechanism of job loss described in the study is twofold. First, the sudden removal of workers in specialized roles, such as skilled trades in construction, can stall entire projects, leading to the layoff of U.S.-born supervisors and support staff. Second, the report identifies a significant drop in local consumption. As immigrant communities retreat from public life to avoid enforcement actions, spending at local grocery stores, restaurants, and service providers plummets, forcing those businesses to reduce their own headcounts.
Skeptics of the Brookings data point to the inherent difficulty in isolating immigration enforcement from other macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate fluctuations or shifts in consumer sentiment. The administration has frequently cited internal Department of Labor figures suggesting that labor participation rates remain robust in several border states. However, the Brookings report emphasizes that the 668,000 lost jobs are concentrated in urban hubs where the integration of immigrant labor into the broader supply chain is most dense.
The findings arrive as U.S. President Trump continues to signal an expansion of the enforcement mandate, including the potential use of military assets for domestic deportations. While the administration maintains that these measures are essential for national security and wage growth, the Brookings data suggests the immediate economic cost is being borne by the very working-class communities the policy intended to protect. The report concludes that without a shift in strategy, the continued contraction of the labor pool could act as a persistent drag on GDP growth through the remainder of the year.
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