As trilateral peace negotiations under the mediation of U.S. President Trump’s administration prepare to resume in Abu Dhabi on February 4-5, 2026, a critical domestic hurdle has emerged for the Ukrainian leadership. According to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) between January 23 and 29, 2026, 52% of Ukrainians consider it categorically unacceptable to transfer the entire Donbas region to Russian control, even if such a move were coupled with robust security guarantees from the United States and Europe.
The poll, released on February 2, 2026, highlights a stark divide in Ukrainian society. While 40% of respondents expressed a willingness to consider withdrawing troops from currently held territories—such as the strategic hubs of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk—in exchange for peace, the majority remains steadfast. Notably, 31% of those open to concessions admitted the decision would be "difficult," while only 7% remained undecided. This data surfaces at a volatile moment: despite a temporary pause in strikes on energy infrastructure requested by U.S. President Trump, a Russian drone strike on a miner transport bus in the Dnipropetrovsk region killed 15 workers on February 1, further hardening public resolve.
The timing of this public sentiment is significant as U.S. President Trump’s peace envoy, Steve Witkoff, and other senior officials including Jared Kushner, recently met with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Florida to refine the parameters of a potential deal. The Kremlin, represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, has increasingly framed the conflict as a bilateral matter between "great powers," attempting to sideline European influence and pressure the Trump administration into accepting Russia’s maximalist territorial demands. Lavrov has positioned the full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as a non-negotiable prerequisite for any freeze in hostilities.
From a strategic perspective, the Ukrainian public’s rejection of ceding the Donbas is rooted in more than just national pride; it is a calculated assessment of long-term survival. Military analysts, as noted by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), warn that surrendering the remaining unoccupied portions of Donetsk Oblast would dismantle Ukraine’s most formidable defensive lines, which have been fortified since 2014. Losing the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration would not only deprive Kyiv of a vital industrial base but would also provide Moscow with a superior staging ground for future incursions into central Ukraine once its military forces have reconstituted.
The economic and humanitarian context of the survey adds weight to its findings. Ukraine is currently enduring one of its harshest winters, with temperatures plummeting to -20°C and the energy grid teetering on the brink of collapse. Despite these "Groundhog Day" conditions of perpetual hardship, the KIIS data shows that support for territorial concessions has not grown over the last two weeks of January. In Kyiv, where infrastructure strain is acute, 59% of residents still reject the proposed land-for-security swap. This suggests that the "transactional diplomacy" favored by the current U.S. administration may be fundamentally misaligned with the Ukrainian perception of security, which views territorial integrity as the only viable deterrent against future aggression.
Looking forward, the Abu Dhabi talks face a high probability of deadlock if the U.S. continues to push for a total Donbas withdrawal. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy finds himself in a precarious position, squeezed between U.S. President Trump’s desire for a rapid diplomatic victory and a domestic electorate that views such a victory as a strategic surrender. If the Trump administration ignores these internal Ukrainian dynamics, any signed agreement may lack the domestic legitimacy required for implementation, potentially leading to political instability within Kyiv or a breakdown of the ceasefire shortly after its inception. The coming days in the UAE will determine whether Washington can bridge the gap between Moscow’s territorial hunger and the unyielding defiance of the Ukrainian public.
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