NextFin News - On January 16, 2026, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) released the results of a nationwide public opinion survey conducted from January 9 to 14, 2026, across Ukrainian government-controlled territories. The survey, which interviewed 601 respondents aged 18 and older via computer-assisted telephone interviews, found that a majority of Ukrainians—54%—firmly reject the proposition of ceding the entire Donbas region to Russia in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and European allies. Meanwhile, 39% expressed conditional willingness to consider such a concession, albeit acknowledging its difficulty, and 5% remained undecided.
The Donbas region, comprising Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, remains a focal point of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict. While Russia controls nearly all of Luhansk, Kyiv retains control over approximately 20% of Donetsk, including strategically significant towns and defensive positions. The proposal to cede this territory has been a contentious issue in peace negotiations, with Russia demanding territorial concessions and Ukraine seeking legally binding security guarantees to prevent future aggression.
The survey identified three primary reasons for the widespread rejection of territorial concessions. First, 35% of respondents believe Russia would continue its military aggression regardless of concessions. Second, 33% cited Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to territorial integrity and the moral imperative to protect its citizens in Donbas. Third, 25% expressed skepticism about the credibility and enforceability of Western security guarantees. These findings underscore a profound mistrust of Russia’s intentions and doubts about the reliability of international security assurances.
Further data from the survey reveal that nearly 70% of Ukrainians doubt that current negotiations will yield lasting peace, and 57% anticipate renewed Russian attacks even if a ceasefire is established at current front lines with allied security guarantees. Additionally, 40% doubt that the United States would provide effective support in the event of renewed Russian aggression, highlighting concerns about the robustness of Western commitments.
This public sentiment emerges amid intensified Russian air strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages and heating shortages during winter, which exacerbate civilian hardships and reinforce resistance to territorial concessions perceived as capitulation.
The survey’s methodology excluded residents of temporarily occupied territories and Ukrainians who fled abroad after February 24, 2022, focusing on those residing in government-controlled areas. The statistical margin of error is approximately ±5.3% for indicators near 50%, lending reliability to the findings despite wartime conditions.
The rejection of ceding Donbas reflects a complex interplay of national identity, legal principles, and security calculations. Ukrainians’ firm stance against territorial concessions signals a collective prioritization of sovereignty and territorial integrity over uncertain security guarantees. This attitude complicates diplomatic efforts to reach a peace settlement that involves territorial compromises.
From a geopolitical perspective, the skepticism toward Western security guarantees may stem from historical precedents such as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances that many perceive as inadequately upheld. This legacy fuels caution and demands for legally binding, enforceable guarantees rather than informal promises.
Economically and socially, retaining control over Donbas is critical due to the region’s industrial capacity and population. Ceding the territory could have profound implications for Ukraine’s economic recovery and social cohesion, potentially displacing populations and disrupting industrial supply chains.
Looking forward, the entrenched public opposition to territorial concessions suggests that any peace negotiations involving ceding Donbas will face significant domestic resistance, limiting the Ukrainian government’s flexibility. This may prolong the conflict or push diplomatic efforts toward alternative frameworks that do not involve territorial loss.
For U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, inaugurated in January 2025, this public opinion data underscores the importance of calibrating U.S. policy to support Ukraine’s sovereignty while managing expectations around security guarantees. The administration’s approach to security assistance and diplomatic engagement will need to address Ukrainian skepticism and reinforce credible deterrence against further Russian aggression.
In conclusion, the KIIS survey highlights a critical challenge in resolving the Russo-Ukrainian conflict: the deep-rooted Ukrainian public resistance to territorial concessions in Donbas, driven by distrust of Russia and doubts about Western guarantees. This sentiment shapes the strategic environment and will influence the trajectory of peace negotiations and regional stability in 2026 and beyond.
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