NextFin News - International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed Wednesday that the majority of Iran’s highly enriched uranium is likely stored within the Isfahan nuclear complex, contradicting earlier Pentagon assertions that the country’s nuclear infrastructure had been "obliterated." In an interview with the Associated Press, Grossi revealed that satellite imagery from June 2025 captured a truck transporting 18 blue containers—believed to hold uranium enriched to 60% purity—into a tunnel at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center just days before the outbreak of the 12-day war. The agency estimates that roughly 200 kilograms of Iran’s 440.9-kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains at the site, which has been off-limits to international inspectors since last year.
The disclosure comes at a precarious moment for the global economy, as the ongoing conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to strain energy markets. Brent crude oil was trading at $110.95 per barrel on Wednesday, reflecting a sustained risk premium as U.S. President Trump maintains a hardline stance against Tehran. The geopolitical instability has similarly driven investors toward safe-haven assets, with spot gold prices reaching $4,544.91 per ounce. These price levels underscore the market's sensitivity to the stalemate in the Middle East, where a fragile ceasefire is currently tested by the lack of progress on nuclear verification.
Grossi, who has led the IAEA since 2019, has consistently advocated for diplomatic engagement and technical verification, often positioning the agency as a neutral arbiter between Western intelligence and Iranian claims. His latest assessment serves as a direct challenge to U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who testified before a House committee on Wednesday that Iranian nuclear facilities were effectively neutralized during the 2025 "Operation Midnight Hammer" strikes. Grossi’s position is rooted in the IAEA’s mandate to track nuclear material, and while his findings are authoritative, they represent the agency's specific technical lens rather than a broader intelligence consensus. Some analysts in Washington remain skeptical of the IAEA's ability to track dispersed materials without boots-on-the-ground access.
The financial toll of the conflict is also coming into sharper focus. Pentagon Chief Financial Officer Jules Hurst III informed lawmakers on Wednesday that the war has cost the United States approximately $25 billion to date. This expenditure is fueling a debate over the 2027 military budget proposal, which seeks a historic $1.5 trillion in funding. The ballooning costs, combined with the depletion of critical munitions stockpiles, have drawn sharp criticism from congressional Democrats. Representative Adam Smith of Washington characterized the current strategy as an attempt to use "coercion to bend the world to our will," highlighting a growing rift in the U.S. political landscape regarding the sustainability of the war effort.
Iran has reportedly signaled a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but only if the U.S. agrees to defer discussions on the future of its nuclear program. This proposal has been met with resistance from the Trump administration, which views the removal of enriched uranium as a non-negotiable prerequisite for any long-term settlement. Hegseth reiterated this stance on Wednesday, suggesting that the U.S. would "take" the uranium if it were not handed over voluntarily. However, Grossi noted that moving such material out of the country would require either a complex political agreement involving Russia or a high-risk military operation in hostile territory.
The IAEA’s inability to "inspect or reject" the presence of nuclear material at Isfahan, Natanz, or Fordo leaves a significant gap in the global security architecture. While the agency has engaged in informal discussions with Tehran and separate talks with Washington, it has been sidelined from the recent ceasefire negotiations mediated by Pakistan. Without a mechanism for verification, the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran remains a central driver of market volatility. The current stalemate suggests that until the status of the Isfahan stockpile is resolved, the geopolitical premium on oil and gold is unlikely to dissipate.
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