NextFin news, on November 11, 2025, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Global Cooling Watch 2025 report during the COP30 UN climate summit held in Belem, Brazil. UNEP warned that worldwide demand for air conditioning units is on track to more than triple by the year 2050, driven by a confluence of factors including population growth, rising global wealth, and the intensification of extreme heat events due to climate change. The report emphasized that while billions of people still lack adequate cooling access, current trajectories of increased reliance on inefficient and polluting cooling technologies could almost double greenhouse gas emissions tied to cooling compared to 2022 levels.
The rapid growth of cooling demand is expected to be most pronounced in Africa and South Asia, regions facing both rising temperatures and socio-economic development. UNEP's Executive Director, Inger Andersen, stressed that cooling must be regarded as essential infrastructure akin to water, energy, and sanitation to mitigate the deadly impacts of heat waves. Yet, she cautioned against viewing increased air conditioning as a panacea, as expanding reliance on traditional AC systems threatens to exacerbate climate impacts and increase economic burdens.
UNEP highlighted 'passive cooling' and energy-efficient solutions such as advanced wall and roof designs, shading, enhanced ventilation, and solar-powered off-grid systems. These approaches can reduce indoor temperatures by 0.5 to 8 degrees Celsius and could reduce future emissions by 64% compared to a scenario without such measures. The report calls for urgent investment in these sustainable solutions to reconcile the dual imperatives of meeting cooling demand and achieving global climate goals.
Underlying this surge in cooling needs are several interconnected drivers. Population growth—expected to add nearly 2 billion people by 2050, predominantly in hotter climates—naturally elevates demand for cooling. Rising incomes, especially in emerging markets, increase affordability and adoption of air conditioners. Meanwhile, climate change contributes to more frequent and severe heatwaves, escalating the necessity for personal and commercial cooling. UNEP’s analysis indicates that unless the cooling sector undergoes transformational changes, it will become a major contributor to global emissions, undermining mitigation efforts.
From an economic perspective, the growing demand for air conditioning translates into expanding markets worth hundreds of billions of dollars, with implications for manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and urban development. However, this also poses operational challenges for power grids, many of which—particularly in developing regions—are ill-prepared for peak electricity loads induced by mass air conditioning use. This dynamic risks energy insecurity and economic vulnerabilities, especially under the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose government policies have emphasized energy development with mixed signals on climate commitments.
The environmental implications are profound. Cooling systems largely rely on electricity that is still predominantly generated from fossil fuels, thus increased usage amplifies carbon footprints unless the power sector is rapidly decarbonized. In addition, many cooling technologies use hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases. The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol seeks to phase down HFCs, but broad adoption and enforcement remain limited. The call by UNEP for passive and nature-based cooling solutions aligns with a growing international emphasis on climate-smart infrastructure.
Looking forward, the industry faces dual pressures: fulfilling rising cooling demands and adhering to sustainability mandates. Innovations in cooling technology, including variable refrigerant flow systems, advanced heat exchangers, and integration with renewable energy, are likely to gain traction. Moreover, urban planning and building codes incorporating cooling efficiency measures will become increasingly critical. Policymakers globally, including in America under President Trump's administration and emerging markets in Africa and Asia, will need to balance economic growth, energy security, and climate commitments in the cooling sector.
Failure to manage this surge sustainably may lead to a vicious cycle of increased emissions and worsening heat stress, disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and undermining climate adaptation and mitigation goals. Conversely, adopting UNEP's recommended strategies offers an opportunity to transform cooling from a climate liability into a resilience asset, supporting wellbeing, economic development, and environmental sustainability worldwide.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme's report and accompanying analysis by Channel News Asia, these findings underscore an urgent global imperative: to reimagine cooling systems and infrastructure not just as comfort enhancers but as vital elements of climate resilience and sustainable development strategies in the mid-21st century.
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