NextFin News - On December 11, 2025, independent investigative reports surfaced revealing a secret annex to the newly released US national security strategy crafted under U.S. President Donald Trump. According to Defence One, this classified document outlines Washington's intent to encourage the departure of Poland, Italy, Hungary, and Austria from the European Union (EU), aiming to fragment European unity. The strategy singles out longstanding challenges within Europe—such as migration issues, declining birth rates, and perceived erosion of national identity—as symptoms of institutional failures linked to the EU and other supranational bodies. The document proposes the US should instead bolster bilateral relations with select like-minded governments perceived to be politically aligned with President Trump, in part to create a new geopolitical bloc. Further revealed plans include establishing a 'Core 5' group consisting of the US, China, Russia, India, and Japan to address regional security issues, notably in the Middle East.
This posture represents a stark departure from the post-Cold War US security framework that traditionally underpinned European defense through NATO and EU collaboration. U.S. President Trump’s administration denies the existence of any alternative secret strategy, though the leak has heightened tensions between Washington and EU capitals.
European leaders and analysts across the continent are reacting with alarm to the idea of the US deliberately undermining European integration. The shift signals a transactional, power-oriented US grand strategy that prioritizes spheres of influence and pragmatic alliances over multilateral commitments and shared liberal democratic values. Countries like Poland have been rising as significant security actors on NATO’s eastern flank, increasing defense spending to 4.7% of GDP in 2025 and establishing national programs (e.g., the 'Eastern Shield') to enhance resilience against Russian hybrid threats. Warsaw has simultaneously played a key role in supporting Ukraine politically, militarily, and economically, deepening cooperation with the United States, including hosting thousands of US troops.
However, U.S. policy under President Trump now casts doubt on the future extent of American military commitment to Europe. This unilateral approach puts pressure on the EU and NATO to reconsider their security strategies, further accelerating debates on developing European strategic autonomy. Commentators from the Fondapol and Robert Schuman Foundation emphasize that Europe must strengthen internal cohesion, develop independent defense industrial capabilities, and institutionalize command structures that can operate with or without US participation. The reinforcement of the European pillar within NATO and the potential creation of autonomous military command arrangements in the EU seek to prepare for scenarios where American engagement wanes due to shifting US priorities.
Simultaneously, geopolitical dynamics reveal emerging multipolar tensions. The 'Core 5' initiative proposed by Washington signals US recognition of China, Russia, and India as peer competitors in a world less dominated by Western liberal hegemony. This reordering complicates Europe’s diplomatic posture, as it must navigate relationships with authoritarian powers while safeguarding democratic values and strategic interests. The presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin at high-level summits with U.S. President Trump and Chinese leadership also underscores the ideological realignments shaping current security calculations.
These developments unfold against a backdrop of Europe’s partial reliance on American technological and military enablers but growing awareness of vulnerabilities in key domains such as cyber, space, and intelligence. The EU’s adoption of defense funding frameworks like the ReArm Europe initiative (€800 billion investment) and institutional mechanisms such as PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) represent efforts to reduce dependence on Washington and address internal fragmentation.
In summary, U.S. President Trump’s defense strategy effectively challenges European autonomy by: 1) promoting selective bilateralism over multilateralism; 2) targeting fragmentation within the EU to reshape the continent’s political landscape; and 3) redefining global order through spheres of influence with other major powers. For Europe, this signals an urgent imperative to accelerate the development of strategic autonomy, reinforce transatlantic dialogue under new terms, and sustain cohesion amid external pressures.
Looking forward, Europe’s success in preserving security interests will hinge on balancing pragmatic engagement with great powers, bolstering collective defense capabilities, and constructing resilient political coalitions. The potential EU fragmentation envisaged by Washington risks economic volatility, weakened diplomatic leverage, and diminished capacity to collectively deter aggressive actors like Russia. Yet, these risks may catalyze renewed European integration efforts in defense and foreign policy, fostering long-term resilience.
The unfolding situation suggests that the US-EU security relationship will transform from traditional alliance hierarchies to more complex, conditional partnerships influenced by ideological alignment and strategic calculations. European capitals must reassess their reliance on US security guarantees and prepare for scenarios involving partial American disengagement or realigned priorities under U.S. President Trump’s administration.
To quantify the impact, defense spending data reveals that while the US maintains the largest global military budget (exceeding $900 billion in 2025), European NATO members now collectively allocate approximately €300 billion annually to defense, growing steadily over the last five years following Russian aggression in Ukraine. Poland’s rise as the continent’s largest army by 2035,* investing over 4.7% of GDP, symbolizes a scaling of European military ambition, partly driven by uncertainty over US reliability.
In conclusion, the US national security strategy’s reorientation under President Trump presents both risks and opportunities for Europe. While US withdrawal or disruption of European unity poses strategic vulnerabilities, it also accelerates EU efforts to build credible autonomous capabilities, reinforce political cohesion, and secure its place in an increasingly multipolar international order.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.
