NextFin News - As of 7:45 a.m. ET.
Pre‑Market Performance
U.S. index futures — Nasdaq 100 +0.23% (+57.5 pts to 24,820.3); S&P 500 −0.01% (−0.5 pt to 6,851.0); Dow Jones +0.14% (+70 pts to 48,919).
Europe — FTSE 100 −0.08% at 10,676.68; CAC 40 −0.04% at 8,493.92; DAX −0.23% at 24,934.62.
Commodities/FX — Brent crude ~$71.90 (+0.8%) and WTI ~$67.10 (+0.9%) as traders track U.S.–Iran diplomacy and supply forecasts. barrons.com Gold hovers near $5,170/oz amid tariff‑related haven demand. marketwatch.com The U.S. Dollar Index is near the upper‑96s after recent softness earlier in February. investing.com
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 a.m. ET, Feb) — Prior: 84.5 (Jan 27). Markets are watching for stabilization after January’s sharp drop. investing.com
- PCE inflation (Fri, Feb 27) — Headline YoY: 2.8% expected (prev 2.8%); Core YoY: 3.0% expected (prev 2.8%). A firmer core print would complicate near‑term rate‑cut bets. investopedia.com
- GDP (Q4 advance, Fri, Feb 27) — Consensus: +2.8% annualized vs prior +4.4%. A cooler print would confirm late‑2025 deceleration. riotimesonline.com
- Initial jobless claims (Thu) — Consensus: 229k vs prior 227k; labor signals remain mixed. riotimesonline.com
- Monthly Wholesale Trade (Dec, 10:00 a.m. ET today) — Prior (Nov): Sales +1.3% m/m; Inventories +0.2% m/m; Inventories/Sales 1.28. census.gov
Fed policy — January FOMC minutes (released Feb 18) flagged that progress toward 2% inflation may be “slower and uneven,” keeping rates on hold at 3.50%–3.75% while emphasizing data‑dependence ahead of March 17–18. Governor Waller said the March decision is a “coin flip,” putting added focus on this week’s data. ft.com
Market take — A soft confidence reading plus firm core PCE would argue for a cautious risk tone and support the dollar and long‑end Treasurys; a benign PCE/growth mix could extend the equity bid and ease policy‑cut timing concerns.
Hot News
- New global tariffs take effect at 10% — The White House’s broad import levy is now live; officials have signaled a potential move to 15%, keeping trade policy squarely in focus for inflation and supply chain risk. theguardian.com
- AWS outage highlights AI‑ops risk — Reports that Amazon’s cloud unit had a December disruption linked to internal AI tools keep operational governance in focus for hyperscalers. finance.yahoo.com
- U.K. inflation cools — Softer January CPI has markets pricing higher odds of a spring BoE cut, adding a supportive backdrop for European risk assets. theguardian.com
U.S. Stock Focus
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — AMD surged pre‑market after unveiling a multi‑year deal to supply up to 6GW of Instinct GPUs to Meta. The agreement includes a performance‑based warrant allowing Meta to acquire up to ~10% of AMD over time, underscoring the race to diversify AI silicon beyond Nvidia. investing.com
- Meta Platforms (META) — Meta confirmed the long‑term AI‑infrastructure partnership with AMD, aligning hardware/software roadmaps and targeting shipments starting 2H26; capex signals remain elevated as it scales “personal superintelligence.” about.fb.com
- Nvidia (NVDA) — Ahead of Wednesday’s report, options imply roughly a ±6% move; analysts remain broadly positive on AI‑driven demand even as investors watch for any shift from training to inference mix and capital discipline. investopedia.com
- The Home Depot (HD) — Q4: revenue $38.2B (−3.8% y/y; 13‑week vs 14‑week comp year), comps +0.4% (U.S. +0.3%); adj. EPS $2.72; dividend raised 1.3% to $2.33; FY26 outlook: sales +2.5%–4.5%, comps flat to +2.0%. Stock firmer pre‑market. ir.homedepot.com
- Salesforce (CRM) — Options pricing implies ~±9% move into Wednesday’s after‑close results; Street looks for EPS ~$3.05 on ~$11.2B revenue as investors gauge AI monetization versus macro software spend. investopedia.com
- Tesla (TSLA) — California regulators opted against a 30‑day sales suspension after Tesla reworked driver‑assist marketing language (now “supervised”), easing a near‑term regulatory overhang. apnews.com
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — The insurer expects to shed 1.3–1.4M Medicare Advantage members in 2026 amid pricing and benefit resets to defend margins, keeping managed‑care sentiment fragile into CMS updates. fiercehealthcare.com
- Amazon (AMZN) — Follow‑through scrutiny after reports an internal AI agent contributed to a December AWS service disruption; management framed the episode as a limited, single‑service event. finance.yahoo.com
Notes on Market Drivers
Equities open with a modest rebound bias as oil strength and tariff uncertainty compete with anticipation for PCE/GDP and mega‑cap AI headlines (NVDA, AMD/META). A firmer core PCE or weaker confidence would argue for a flatter risk tone and support for defensives and quality balance sheets into month‑end. m.investing.com
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