NextFin News - Pre‑market snapshot for U.S. equities, global markets, commodities and key macro themes ahead of the New York open.
Pre‑Market Performance
- U.S. index futures — Nasdaq‑100 +108.8 pts to 25,137.5 (+0.43%); S&P 500 +22.5 pts to 6,926.3 (+0.33%); Dow Jones +145 pts to 49,381 (+0.29%).
- Europe — FTSE 100 10,787.1 (+1.0%); CAC 40 8,554.45 (+0.41%); DAX 25,086.5 (+0.40%).
- Commodities — Brent crude ~$70.7/bbl; WTI ~$65.5/bbl as geopolitical risk bids crude higher. tradingnews.com
- Gold — Spot gold trades near $5,150/oz this morning after a sharp run‑up in February. fortune.com
- FX — U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ~97.7, little changed to slightly softer intraday. investing.com
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
- GDP (Q4 2025, advance): +1.4% q/q annualized (consensus ~2.8%; prior +4.4%). BEA flagged the Oct–Nov federal shutdown as a roughly 1.0 ppt drag. Implication: softer headline growth but resilient private demand. bea.gov
- PCE inflation (Dec 2025): Headline +0.4% m/m; +2.9% y/y. Core: +0.4% m/m; +3.0% y/y. Implication: firmer price pressures into year‑end keep the Fed cautious. bea.gov
- CPI (Jan 2026): Headline +0.2% m/m, +2.4% y/y; Core: +0.3% m/m, +2.5% y/y. Context: energy was a notable drag, while shelter contributed most to the monthly rise. bls.gov
- Fed policy: FOMC held the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% on Jan 27–28; minutes (Feb 18) emphasized that progress toward 2% could be “uneven,” arguing for patience before any additional cuts. The Board set IORB at 3.65%. Implication: near‑term cuts look unlikely without further disinflation. federalreserve.gov
- Calendar shifts: Following late‑2025 data disruptions, BEA rescheduled several releases; the Q4 GDP second estimate and Jan 2026 PCE were moved from Feb 26, while Jan PPI is slated for Feb 27, 8:30 a.m. ET. Implication: lighter data slate today; Friday’s PPI could sway rate‑cut odds. bea.gov
Market take: Mixed growth signals (soft GDP vs. hot PCE) and a wait‑and‑see Fed keep focus on company earnings and geopolitics today. Oil’s risk premium supports Energy, while elevated gold hints at ongoing hedging; a stable DXY offers a mild tailwind for risk assets. federalreserve.gov
Hot News
- Oil climbs on geopolitical risk — Brent hovers around $70–72 as tensions linked to U.S.–Iran developments bolster a war‑risk premium; traders watch any Strait of Hormuz headlines. marketwatch.com
- AI optimism underpins risk appetite — Global equities remain buoyed by outsized AI capex and upcoming mega‑cap prints, keeping volatility event‑driven around marquee reports. apnews.com
U.S. Stock Focus
- Nvidia (NVDA): Earnings on deck; AI demand in focus — Shares edge higher pre‑market as investors look for data‑center momentum, margin durability and Blackwell commentary; some on the Street see upside risk to consensus into tonight’s print. Read more | Preview.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Lands multi‑year Meta AI chip deal — AMD secured an agreement to supply up to 6 GW of AI compute over five years; structure includes performance‑based warrants that could give Meta a stake, spotlighting AMD as a credible alternative to Nvidia. WSJ.
- Meta Platforms (META): AI capex ramps alongside AMD pact — The chip‑sourcing deal underscores Meta’s push to diversify away from a single vendor and expand data‑center capacity through late 2026; investors weigh capex intensity vs. long‑term AI monetization. AP.
- First Solar (FSLR): Guidance disappoints; shares tumble — Q4 EPS missed while FY2026 revenue outlook of $4.9–$5.2B fell well below consensus (~$6.1B), sending the stock down double‑digits pre‑market. Details.
- Workday (WDAY): Weak subscription outlook hits sentiment — Despite beats, FY2027 subscription revenue guidance ($9.93–$9.95B) trailed estimates; shares fall ~10% pre‑market amid sector‑wide AI disruption concerns. Reuters.
- Lowe’s (LOW): Beat but cautious FY2026 guide — Q4 sales and EPS topped views; outlook for FY2026 EPS ($12.25–$12.75) and sales ($92–$94B) underwhelmed, pressuring shares early. Release.
- HP Inc. (HPQ): Guides to low end; stock slips — FQ1 revenue and EPS beat, but FY2026 EPS tracking toward the lower end of prior guidance amid memory‑cost headwinds. Release.
- Axon Enterprise (AXON): Strong quarter; AI push lifts shares — Q4 EPS $2.15 and revenue +39% y/y topped estimates; upbeat 2026 outlook and expanding AI features drove a double‑digit jump. Investing.com.
- CAVA Group (CAVA): PTs raised on solid 2026 setup — TD Cowen lifted its target to $90, citing better‑than‑expected 2026 guidance and continued comp momentum. More.
Notes on Commodities and FX
- Crude oil: A Middle East risk premium has pushed Brent toward six‑month highs; higher oil supports Energy while squeezing transportation margins. marketwatch.com
- Dollar: The dollar is consolidating recent softness; a steady dollar eases cross‑asset pressure versus late‑2025 highs. investing.com
Ahead today: Corporate earnings headlines and crude’s geopolitical bid are likely to steer sector leadership; macro catalysts re‑accelerate Friday with January PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET. bls.gov
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.
