NextFin News - Early U.S. trading points to a weaker open as investors digest a soft jobs report, heightened Fed‑policy uncertainty, and a surge in safe‑haven demand.
Pre‑Market Performance
- U.S. index futures — Nasdaq 100: 25,753 (−185.25, −0.71%); S&P 500: 6,968.5 (−36.5, −0.52%); Dow Jones: 49,388 (−338, −0.68%).
- Europe — FTSE 100: 10,134.23 (+0.10%); CAC 40: 8,359.46 (−0.03%); DAX: 25,400.66 (+0.55%).
- Commodities & FX — Brent crude $63.39 (+$0.05); WTI $59.16 (+$0.04); spot gold set a record above $4,560–$4,600/oz; U.S. Dollar Index ~99.0 (−0.2%). Oil, gold, dollar.
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
Employment (December 2025): Nonfarm payrolls +50k (consensus +60k); unemployment rate 4.4% (prior 4.6%). Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m; +3.8% y/y. October was revised down to −173k and November to +56k, underscoring a cooler labor market. These data reduce the urgency for immediate Fed cuts but reinforce a “slow‑growth” narrative. BLS, Reuters.
Inflation next up: CPI for December 2025 is due Tuesday, January 13, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Street leans toward headline +0.2%–0.4% m/m (y/y ~2.6%–2.8%) and core +0.2%–0.4% m/m (y/y ~2.6%–2.9%), with analysts flagging possible “payback” from prior measurement quirks. BLS schedule, preview.
Producer prices: PPI (Nov 2025) is scheduled for Wednesday, January 14, 8:30 a.m. ET; December PPI arrives January 30. BLS calendar.
Fed policy dynamics: The FOMC meets January 27–28. Markets now price a hold amid a widening dispute between the Administration and the Fed after reports of a criminal probe targeting Chair Jerome Powell, a development that rattled futures, softened the dollar, and helped propel gold to records. Fed calendar, market wrap, gold move.
BEA schedule updates: Personal Income & Outlays (Oct–Nov 2025) shifted to Jan 22 at 10 a.m.; 4Q GDP advance and December PCE now due Feb 20. BEA.
Market impact: The combination of softer hiring, firm wages, and policy noise keeps rate‑cut hopes tentative. A hotter‑than‑expected CPI would likely extend dollar stability and pressure duration/long‑duration equities; a benign CPI could revive rate‑cut bets, particularly with banks kicking off earnings this week.
Hot News
- Fed independence under spotlight — Reports of a criminal probe involving Chair Powell deepened tensions with the White House, knocking U.S. futures, lifting gold to new highs, and pressuring the dollar. Read, Read, Read.
- Energy balance: Iran risk vs. Venezuela barrels — Oil is little changed as unrest in Iran (potential supply risk) is offset by efforts to restart Venezuelan exports; Goldman Sachs projects Brent averaging $56 in 2026 amid surplus supply. Read, Read.
- Banks to open earnings season — Investment‑banking fees are set for their best stretch since the pandemic; investors will focus on ROTCE, credit costs, and expense guidance. Read, Read.
- India’s proposed smartphone rules — Draft security standards including potential source‑code review face pushback from Apple, Samsung, Google and others; consultations continue. Read, Read.
- AI infrastructure ramp — OpenAI and SoftBank committed $1B to SB Energy to expand data‑center capacity tied to the “Stargate” initiative, underscoring power and infrastructure constraints in AI buildouts. Read.
U.S. Stock Focus
- Nvidia (NVDA) — Shares are under pressure pre‑market after a week of product headlines at CES, amid continued demand from hyperscalers and interest around China‑focused AI chips. Nvidia also unveiled the Vera Rubin architecture (CPU/GPU/interconnect/DPU suite) aimed at rack‑scale trusted AI computing, targeting rollout in 2H26; TSMC’s earnings later this week are seen as a sentiment catalyst. Barron’s, The Verge.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — Showcased MI455/MI440X accelerators and detailed its Helios rack system, positioning against Nvidia’s NVL platforms; MI500 was teased for 2027. Reuters, Yahoo Finance.
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — Brussels set Feb 10 as the decision deadline on Alphabet’s proposed $32B purchase of Wiz, as regulators weigh competition in cloud security. Reuters.
- Apple (AAPL) — Tech giants are pushing back on India’s draft rules that could require device source‑code access and additional software mandates; discussions are ongoing. Reuters, ETTelecom.
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — A Senate inquiry flagged “aggressive” diagnosis collection tactics that may boost Medicare Advantage payments; UnitedHealth disputes the characterization and cites compliance with CMS rules. Stock eased about 1% pre‑market. Reuters, WSJ.
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — Earnings Tuesday; watch ROTCE, credit costs, and any updates to 2026 expense outlook after prior guidance signaled higher spend. MarketWatch, Nasdaq.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) — Indicated falling oil prices could reduce Q4 upstream earnings by ~$0.8–$1.2B, partially offset by stronger refining margins; results due Jan 30. Reuters.
- Capital One Financial (COF) — Shares indicated lower after the Administration floated a one‑year 10% cap on credit‑card APRs, intensifying regulatory risk for card‑centric banks. Reuters.
- Synchrony Financial (SYF) — Rate‑cap proposal weighs on sentiment, with pre‑market declines outpacing broader financials. Reuters.
- Tempus AI (TEM) — The healthcare AI firm is among early gainers in a risk‑off tape after recent momentum; traders cite ongoing catalysts in precision‑medicine models. Barron’s.
Bottom line: A fragile growth backdrop, a pivotal CPI print on Tuesday, and acute policy uncertainty are driving a classic risk‑off pre‑market skew (defensives bid, gold strong; cyclicals and high‑beta tech mixed). Bank earnings and guidance on credit quality and expenses will help set the tone for the next leg.
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