NextFin News - U.S. Pre‑Market Briefing — Thursday, January 15, 2026 (New York)
Pre‑Market Performance
- U.S. index futures: Nasdaq 100 +0.86% to 25,852.5 (+221.5 pts); S&P 500 +0.37% to 6,992.3 (+26.0 pts); Dow Jones +0.04% to 49,376 (+20 pts).
- Europe (mid‑session): FTSE 100 10,225.27 (+0.40%, +40.92 pts); CAC 40 8,315.70 (−0.18%, −15.26 pts); DAX 25,283.60 (−0.01%, −2.64 pts).
- Commodities: Brent crude ~$64.4–$64.9 (≈−3%), WTI $60.48 (≈−2.5%) as de‑escalation signals on Iran trim the geopolitical premium. ft.com
- Gold: Spot $4,608.8 (−0.3%) after a record >$4,640/oz on Wednesday. reuters.com
- FX: U.S. Dollar Index ~98.97 (+0.06% d/d); USD/JPY ~158.6 as officials warn on intervention. investing.com
- Rates: U.S. 10Y Treasury ~4.15% pre‑market. tradingeconomics.com
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
CPI (Dec): Headline 2.7% y/y (prev 2.7%); core 2.6% y/y (prev 2.6%). Consensus ahead of the release clustered near 2.6% headline and 2.7% core; the print was described as “slightly below forecasts,” with food prices up 0.7% m/m. reuters.com
PPI (Nov): Final demand +0.2% m/m (consensus ~+0.2%); next PPI (Dec) scheduled for January 30, 2026. reuters.com
Labor market: December nonfarm payrolls +50k (consensus ~55–60k); unemployment rate 4.4% (consensus 4.5%); prior months net revisions −76k. Weekly jobless claims last reported at 208k for the week ended Jan 3; today’s update (week ended Jan 10) is due pre‑open. business-standard.com
Fed policy: The FOMC cut rates 25 bps in December to 3.50%–3.75%; minutes and the record show a divided committee. The next meeting is Jan 27–28, 2026. Markets weigh the macro backdrop and elevated political noise—including a DOJ probe of Chair Powell—when pricing the path of cuts. federalreserve.gov
Implications: Slightly cooler‑than‑expected core CPI supports a “hold‑for‑now” stance this month while keeping mid‑year cuts in play. A softer oil complex and a steady DXY temper near‑term inflation impulse, while any renewed stress on Fed independence and tariffs on high‑end chips are upside risks to prices and long‑end yields. ft.com
Hot News
- Semis rally on TSMC capex and outlook: TSMC reported a strong Q4 and unveiled a ~$52–$56B 2026 capex plan, lifting chipmakers and equipment suppliers globally. reuters.com
- U.S. slaps 25% tariff on select AI chips: The new order targets advanced parts including Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X, increasing policy overhang across AI hardware supply chains. reuters.com
- Energy pullback: Brent and WTI fell after remarks that lowered odds of near‑term action against Iran, reducing the geopolitical risk premium in crude. ft.com
- Massive AI compute procurement: OpenAI agreed to buy up to 750 MW from Cerebras in a >$10B multiyear pact, signaling diversification from dominant GPU suppliers and a potential reshuffle of AI infrastructure spend. reuters.com
- Dollar steadies: After last year’s slide the greenback has partially rebounded; strategists say sustained strength would likely require new macro shocks. reuters.com
U.S. Stock Focus
- Nvidia — Included among chips hit by the 25% tariff (H200): the measure could complicate cost structures for data‑center deployments dependent on offshore fabrication; shares were modestly softer despite broader semi optimism. reuters.com
- Advanced Micro Devices — MI325X also in the tariff scope: while some exemptions exist, the order adds uncertainty to pricing and China‑related demand as AI accelerator ramps gain traction. reuters.com
- Applied Materials — Premarket gains as TSMC’s capex guidance implies healthier wafer‑fab equipment orders. reuters.com
- Lam Research — Outperformed peers as investors priced upside to advanced patterning and etch demand tied to AI capacity builds. reuters.com
- KLA — Inspection demand tailwinds from TSMC’s AI‑led capex outlook underpin process‑control spending. reuters.com
- TSMC (ADR) — Q4 beat and aggressive 2026 investment plan ($52–$56B); AI seen as a multi‑year driver and U.S. manufacturing expansion plans remain in focus. ft.com
- BlackRock — Record AUM (~$14.0T) and Q4 profit beat on strong ETF and fixed‑income inflows; private markets scaling supports higher‑margin mix. reuters.com
- Goldman Sachs — Q4 profit rose on dealmaking and trading strength, aided by a one‑time gain; dividend lifted to $4.50/share. reuters.com
- Morgan Stanley — Beat on Q4 EPS and revenue as investment banking momentum improved with a stronger IPO/M&A pipeline. reuters.com
- Tesla — FSD shifts to subscription‑only on Feb 14 (from an $8,000 one‑time option to $99/month), focusing autonomy monetization on recurring revenue amid ongoing safety scrutiny. reuters.com
- Alphabet and Apple — Gemini to power a revamped Siri under a multi‑year pact, deepening Alphabet’s AI reach across Apple devices and altering competitive dynamics for on‑device and private‑cloud AI features. reuters.com
- Oracle — Bondholder suit alleges disclosure failures tied to AI build‑out financing and OpenAI infrastructure commitments; shares slipped on the headline. reuters.com
Notes on Market Drivers
Takeaway: A cooler core CPI, softer oil and a steadier dollar support a constructive early risk tone, amplified by TSMC‑driven semiconductor strength and upbeat money‑center bank prints. Watch jobless claims and Fedspeak for confirmation while tariffs on AI chips and any renewed stress on Fed independence remain key swing factors for rates, the dollar and equity leadership. reuters.com
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.