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Pre‑Market Performance
- U.S. index futures
- Nasdaq‑100 futures (NQ): 25,263, −426 pts (−1.66%).
- S&P 500 futures (ES): 6,882.00, −94.75 pts (−1.36%).
- Dow Jones futures (YM): 48,942, −605 pts (−1.22%).
- Europe equities (cash)
- FTSE 100: 10,104.48, −90.87 (−0.89%).
- CAC 40: 8,037.54, −74.48 (−0.92%).
- DAX: 24,646.10, −312.96 (−1.25%).
- Commodities
- Gold traded above $4,700/oz as haven demand jumped. sg.finance.yahoo.com
- Brent crude hovers in the low $60s per barrel and WTI near the high $50s, amid a bearish 2026 supply outlook. investing.com
- FX
- U.S. dollar weaker; the euro and pound rose roughly 0.4% as investors shifted toward havens. ft.com
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
Inflation (December 2025)
- CPI: +0.3% m/m (consensus 0.3%), +2.7% y/y (consensus 2.6%, prior 2.7%). Core CPI: +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y (prior 2.7%). cbsnews.com
- PPI: +0.2% m/m (consensus ~0.3%–0.4%, prior 0.4%); core ex‑food & energy 0.0% m/m; core ex‑food, energy & trade 0.1%. Y/Y final demand: 3.3%. cnbc.com
Activity & labor
- Retail sales (Dec): +0.4% m/m (consensus 0.6%; prior revised 0.8%); ex‑auto +0.4% m/m. nasdaq.com
- Initial jobless claims (week ended Jan 10): 198k (consensus 215k; prior 207k). apnews.com
- Housing: Existing‑home sales rose 5.1% m/m in December to a 4.35M annual rate; 2025 full‑year sales at a 30‑year low (4.06M). wsj.com
Policy dynamics
- Federal Reserve: Debate over 2026 easing intensifies; some strategists see few or no cuts this year, while prior guidance suggested only a modest 2026 reduction. Markets remain split. investopedia.com
- Trade policy: New U.S. tariff threats on several European allies have raised stagflation risks by potentially lifting import costs while weighing on growth. marketwatch.com
Market take: A steady 2.7% y/y CPI with soft PPI supports a gradual disinflation narrative, but tariff escalation and haven flows (record gold, weaker USD) complicate the near‑term path for risk assets and could keep rate‑cut expectations cautious.
Hot News
- U.S.–Europe trade tensions flare: Equity futures and European stocks reacted to fresh U.S. tariff threats linked to Greenland, stoking fears of a renewed transatlantic trade rift. marketwatch.com
U.S. Stock Focus
- Apple (AAPL) — Tariff relief on China chips through 2027: Apple will avoid new U.S. tariffs on Chinese semiconductors until June 2027, reducing near‑term cost pressure on components across iPhone, iPad, and Mac lines. macrumors.com
- Microsoft (MSFT) — EU sovereign‑cloud commitments expand: Microsoft detailed broader European digital‑sovereignty commitments and data‑boundary capabilities, reinforcing in‑region control over cloud/AI workloads for governments and regulated industries. blogs.microsoft.com
- Amazon (AMZN) — AWS European Sovereign Cloud goes live: AWS launched its independent EU sovereign cloud, planning more than €7.8B of investment and new sovereign Local Zones to meet strict data‑residency and governance needs. press.aboutamazon.com
- Meta Platforms (META) — Threads tops X on mobile DAUs: Similarweb data show Threads overtook X (Twitter) in global daily mobile users in early 2026, highlighting momentum in Meta’s text app despite X’s web advantage. forbes.com
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — German damages ruling: A German court ordered Google to pay about €572M in antitrust damages to local price‑comparison rivals, underscoring ongoing legal headwinds in Europe. techcrunch.com
- Boeing (BA) — 737 MAX production boost approved: The FAA cleared Boeing to raise 737 MAX output to 42 jets/month, a step toward delivery normalization and cash‑flow repair after prior caps. investing.com
- Nvidia (NVDA) — China exports hinge on Beijing sign‑off: Nvidia secured U.S. approval to ship H200 AI chips to China but awaits Chinese import clearance; analysts see sizable revenue potential if flows begin. barrons.com
- Bank of America (BAC) — Q4 beat supports income traction: The bank modestly topped estimates with EPS near $0.98 on firmer net interest income and fees; management struck a constructive tone on 2026. americanbanker.com
- Intel (INTC) — Analyst upgrade on foundry progress: A KeyBanc upgrade cited improving 18A yields and a path to the No. 2 global foundry position behind TSMC, lifting sentiment around Intel’s turnaround. investors.com
- Netflix (NFLX) — Earnings later today; Warner deal in focus: Netflix reports after the bell, with attention on ad‑tier momentum and the revised, all‑cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery as investors weigh leverage and regulatory risk. wsj.com
Outlook
Equity futures are under pressure amid tariff headlines and haven demand, while disinflation trends in CPI/PPI compete with growth concerns. Watch for corporate earnings this week, housing follow‑through after December’s rebound, and evolving expectations into the late‑January Fed meeting as the balance between policy caution and trade uncertainty steers risk appetite.
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