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Pre‑Market Performance
U.S. index futures: Nasdaq‑100 25,691.5 (−46.8 pts, −0.18%); S&P 500 6,941.8 (−4.0 pts, −0.06%); Dow Jones 49,265 (+2 pts, 0.00%).
Europe: FTSE 100 10,162.74 (+19.30, +0.19%); CAC 40 8,126.86 (−16.19, −0.20%); DAX 24,885.35 (−15.36, −0.06%).
Commodities & FX: Spot gold surged above $5,000/oz (intraday high ~$5,100) as the U.S. dollar weakened to multi‑month lows; the yen firmed near ¥154/$ on intervention chatter. Brent crude is hovering in the low‑$60s/bbl and WTI in the high‑$50s/bbl after a weak end to 2025. The U.S. Dollar Index is near the upper‑97s, extending a recent slide. theguardian.com
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
- CPI (Dec 2025): Headline +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y (consensus ~2.7% y/y); core +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, little changed versus November. The steady print helped anchor rate‑cut expectations into early 2026. bls.gov
- Core PCE (Nov 2025): +2.8% y/y (vs. 2.7% in Oct); latest release Jan 22. The slight uptick keeps inflation modestly above the Fed’s 2% goal. bea.gov
- S&P Global Flash PMI (Jan): Composite 52.8 (prev. 52.7); Manufacturing 54.8; Services 52.5 — expansion continues but momentum is subdued as new orders soften. spglobal.com
- Labor market (Dec 2025): Nonfarm payrolls +50k; unemployment 4.4% (vs 4.6% prior). Wage growth remained resilient. washingtonpost.com
- Fed policy: The FOMC concludes Wednesday (Jan 28–29). Communication is limited by the formal blackout period; derivatives markets overwhelmingly price “no change” at this meeting. stlouisfed.org
- Calendar updates: Due to earlier shutdown disruptions, BEA rescheduled the Q4 2025 GDP advance estimate and December PCE to Feb 20, while BLS’s December PPI is due Friday, Jan 30, 8:30 a.m. ET. bea.gov
Market impact: Stable but above‑target inflation and a softening growth pulse argue for a hold this week, while the dollar’s decline and haven demand have amplified the bid in precious metals. Energy remains capped by oversupply narratives and agency outlooks calling for softer 2026 prices, a modest tailwind for disinflation. rigzone.com
Hot News
- Gold breaches $5,000; dollar retreats, yen jumps: A weaker greenback and haven flows propelled gold past a historic $5,000/oz as traders weighed possible FX intervention to support the yen. ft.com
- Shutdown risk returns: A funding clash over Homeland Security has revived near‑term U.S. government shutdown worries into late January. apnews.com
- Red Sea tension: Yemen’s Houthi rebels threatened renewed attacks on shipping as a U.S. carrier group moves closer to Iran, keeping a floor under geopolitical risk premia. apnews.com
- Ukraine security pact: Kyiv says a U.S.–Ukraine security agreement is “ready” pending confirmation, a development with implications for defense spending and European risk sentiment. theguardian.com
U.S. Stock Focus
- Apple (AAPL): Report: Siri overhaul using Google’s Gemini to debut as soon as February. Bloomberg‑flagged plans point to a more conversational Siri as Apple accelerates on‑device AI features ahead of spring hardware cycles.
- Tesla (TSLA): Robotaxi rides begin in Austin without safety drivers. A limited, driverless pilot expands Tesla’s autonomy ambitions ahead of this week’s earnings, with scale‑up plans and regulatory scrutiny in focus.
- Nvidia (NVDA): Aims to start H200 shipments to China by mid‑February pending approvals; management recently highlighted strong China demand at CES. Investors also watch megacap earnings for AI capex signals.
- Boeing (BA): Q4 results due Tuesday, Jan 27; separately, the company reached a tentative labor deal covering former Spirit AeroSystems white‑collar staff in Wichita.
- Meta Platforms (META): Plans up to 30% cut to metaverse budget (Bloomberg via Reuters), shifting focus to AI and near‑term returns after Reality Labs’ heavy losses since 2020.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM): Signals lower oil prices to weigh on Q4 upstream profit, highlighting the earnings sensitivity of supermajors to subdued crude benchmarks.
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Projects ~$105B in 2026 expenses, above prior consensus, as the bank invests in AI, cards, and branch growth — a key watch‑item for financials’ operating leverage.
- Pfizer (PFE): 2026 outlook guides EPS below 2025 amid waning COVID product sales and LOE headwinds; strategy centers on pipeline launches and integration benefits.
- Amazon (AMZN): FTC antitrust case timeline points to mid‑2026 or later, keeping a multi‑year cloud over marketplace practices while operational initiatives continue.
- Coinbase (COIN): Maintains U.S. institutional edge even as rivals pursue listings, but competitive intensity and policy shifts remain near‑term variables for volumes and take‑rate.
Notes on the Day Ahead
- Key data Monday–Wednesday are light before the FOMC; watch Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Tue) and Treasury supply for rate sentiment.
- Into earnings, AI capex commentary from megacaps (Wed–Thu) will be pivotal for semis and cloud‑exposed software.
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