NextFin News - U.S. equity futures edge higher as energy and precious metals rally on heightened geopolitical risk while the Federal Reserve held rates steady, keeping markets focused on upcoming data for guidance on cuts.
Pre‑Market Performance
- U.S. index futures: Nasdaq 100 +0.08% to 26,177; S&P 500 +0.17% to 7,019; Dow Jones +0.06% to 49,195.
- Europe: FTSE 100 10,232.59 (+0.77%); CAC 40 8,107.72 (+0.51%); DAX 24,581.44 (−0.97%).
- Commodities/FX: Brent crude ~$69.9 (+2.2%) and WTI ~$64.7 (+2.3%) extend a three‑day run-up on Iran supply risk; spot gold ~$5,414/oz (+0.3%) at fresh records; ICE U.S. Dollar Index ~96.2 (−0.2%), near multi‑year lows. ca.finance.yahoo.com
Brent briefly topped $70 and WTI approached $65 as markets priced higher odds of Middle East disruption; the softer dollar amplified moves across commodities and supported precious metals. ft.com
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
- Fed policy (Jan 28): The FOMC kept the fed funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% and maintained interest on reserve balances at 3.65%, with two dissents favoring a 25 bp cut. Statement noted “solid” activity, stabilizing unemployment, and inflation still “somewhat elevated,” leaving markets focused on incoming inflation and labor data. federalreserve.gov
- Core PCE (Oct–Nov 2025): +0.2% m/m in both months (consensus 0.2%); +2.8% y/y in November (consensus 2.8%; prior 2.7% in October). BEA confirmed the next PCE (Dec) alongside the Q4 GDP advance on Feb. 20. bea.gov
- Weekly jobless claims (week ended Jan 17): 200,000 vs 208,000 expected; prior 199,000 — still historically low and consistent with a “low‑hire/low‑fire” labor market. marketwatch.com
- Consumer confidence (January): Conference Board index 84.5 vs 90.9 expected and a prior revised 94.2—lowest since 2014, with expectations plunging to 65.1 and flagging potential Q1 consumption headwinds. investing.com
Hot News
- Oil and gold surge: Markets price higher Middle East disruption risk, lifting energy and haven flows into gold and other precious metals.
- Confidence slump flags demand headwinds: The sharp drop in the Conference Board index raises questions about discretionary spending and Q1 growth.
- Ukraine headlines: Fresh Russian strikes ahead of anticipated talks keep geopolitical risk elevated and sustain demand for havens and energy exposure. apnews.com
- AI capex watch: Big Tech continues heavy infrastructure spending — Microsoft’s capex jumped to $37.5B — keeping investor debate on AI returns active. ft.com
U.S. Stock Focus
- Microsoft (MSFT): Revenue $81.3B and adj. EPS $4.14 beat, but Azure growth eased and capex surged to $37.5B; shares fell ~6%–7% pre‑market as investors weigh AI spend vs. returns. barrons.com
- Meta Platforms (META): Q4 revenue $59.89B, EPS $8.88 beat; stock jumped ~9%–11% as guidance topped views despite continued heavy 2026 capex plans for AI. businessinsider.com
- Tesla (TSLA): 2025 net income fell 46% to $3.8B as the company shifts spending toward robotaxis/robots and energy storage; management flagged higher 2026 capex and refocused production capacity. apnews.com
- Boeing (BA): Q4 revenue $23.9B and a record $682B backlog; results include a gain from a portfolio sale and progress on 777X certification; Spirit AeroSystems acquisition closed in December. investors.boeing.com
- Intel (INTC): Shares slid after a soft Q1 outlook ($11.7–$12.7B revenue guide) despite a December‑quarter beat; investors focus on 18A yield ramp and AI roadmap execution. ft.com
- Qualcomm (QCOM): Unveiled Snapdragon X2 Plus for AI PCs at CES, expanding the Windows Copilot+ lineup and emphasizing on‑device NPU performance and battery life. finance.yahoo.com
- GE Aerospace (GE): Q4 orders $27B, revenue $12.7B, adj. EPS $1.57; solid momentum into 2026 with strong services growth and a ~$190B backlog. geaerospace.com
- Apple (AAPL): Reports after the bell today; Street watching iPhone and Services, with several houses modeling ~$139–140B revenue and margin resilience; China demand remains a key swing factor. appleinsider.com
- Mastercard (MA): Set to release Q4 before the open; consensus EPS ~$4.20 on $8.74B revenue with cross‑border volumes in focus after robust holiday travel. nasdaq.com
- Visa (V): FQ1 results due after the close; investors will parse cross‑border trends, U.S. spend elasticity, and any color on 2026 capex/tech investments. usa.visa.com
Note: The BEA rescheduled the Q4 2025 GDP advance estimate and December PCE to Feb. 20 due to earlier data disruptions; markets will key off those releases for confirmation of disinflation and growth trends. bea.gov
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