NextFin News - Markets are mixed ahead of the U.S. open as investors digest this week’s Fed decision, sharp moves in commodities and a heavy earnings slate.
Pre‑Market Performance
- U.S. index futures (as of early pre‑market): Nasdaq‑100 −0.59% to 25,845.5 (−153.8 pts); S&P 500 −0.46% to 6,960.8 (−32.0 pts); Dow Jones −0.42% to 48,963 (−207 pts).
- Europe (latest closes): FTSE 100 +0.46% to 10,218.49; CAC 40 +0.73% to 8,130.10; DAX +0.86% to 24,518.52.
- Commodities/FX: Brent crude $70.50 (−0.3% intraday); WTI $65.03 (−0.6%), amid Middle East tension headlines Reuters. Gold pulls back to ~$5,154/oz (−3.6%) after Thursday’s record run MarketWatch. The U.S. Dollar Index hovers in the mid‑96s, modestly firmer from Thursday’s lows Reuters.
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
- Fed policy: The FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on Jan 28 and maintained IOER at 3.65% Federal Reserve. Major desks see a low probability of a March cut as the committee adopts a meeting‑by‑meeting stance J.P. Morgan.
- Labor market: Initial jobless claims edged down to 209,000 for the week ended Jan 24 (consensus 205,000); the four‑week average rose to 206,250 while continuing claims fell to ~1.83 million, the lowest since 2024 Reuters, AP.
- Key releases timing: Due to post‑shutdown scheduling changes, GDP (Advance) for Q4 2025 and December PCE will be released Feb 20 at 8:30 a.m. ET BEA. BEA also updated Q3 2025 details and flagged format changes to upcoming GDP releases BEA.
- Housing lead indicator: Pending Home Sales fell 9.3% m/m (−3.0% y/y) in December, with declines across all regions NAR.
Market take: A steady Fed alongside delayed PCE/GDP prints keeps near‑term rate visibility limited. Claims remain historically low, tempering recession worries, but policy and geopolitical risks are pushing traders toward defensives and balance‑sheet quality while adding volatility to duration‑sensitive mega caps.
Hot News
- Warsh in focus: Reports point to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the prospective Fed chair nominee; the dollar steadied while gold and silver retreated after Thursday’s surge Barron’s, FT, IBD.
- Oil volatility: Crude trades near recent highs as markets weigh reports the U.S. is considering strikes on Iran, raising supply‑disruption risks Reuters.
- Shutdown risk cools: Senate leaders and the White House reached a framework to avert a partial shutdown, temporarily extending DHS funding while broader talks continue Forbes, The Guardian.
- Tech shake‑out: A post‑earnings slide in Microsoft intensified a software‑led risk‑off move, lifting equity volatility and pressuring growth benchmarks Investopedia, Business Insider.
U.S. Stock Focus
- Apple — Record holiday‑quarter results: Revenue rose 16% y/y to $143.8B with EPS $2.84; iPhone and Services hit all‑time highs and the installed base topped 2.5B devices. Strength was broad‑based, including a sharp rebound in Greater China FT, MacRumors.
- Tesla — Q4/FY25 update: Q4 revenue $24.9B, EPS $0.50; management emphasized a pivot toward autonomy/robotics and a planned $20B 2026 capex, including a $2B investment in xAI. Reports also highlight the phase‑out of Models S/X and early robotaxi pilots in Austin Axios, WSJ.
- Microsoft — FY26 Q2 showed revenue +17% to $81.3B with strong cloud/AI metrics, but shares fell ~10% as investors focused on Azure growth cadence and elevated AI capex; about $30B near‑term capex signaled continued infrastructure build‑out Investopedia.
- SanDisk — Premarket surge after a blowout quarter: adjusted EPS $6.20 vs $3.62 est., revenue $3.03B vs $2.69B est.; guidance midpoint raised to ~$4.6B as AI‑driven NAND/SSD demand accelerates Barron’s, WSJ.
- Western Digital — Beats and raises as AI storage demand lifts HDD shipments; adjusted EPS $2.13 on $3.02B revenue, with Q3 revenue outlook to ~$3.2B. The company continues to benefit from the 2025 Sandisk spin‑off and cloud capex tailwinds Western Digital.
- Exxon Mobil — 4Q25 EPS $1.71 ex‑items on revenue ~$82.3B; full‑year earnings $28.8B with strong Permian and Guyana contributions. The company returned $37.2B to shareholders in 2025 and targets $27–$29B 2026 capex.
- Chevron — Q4 beat (adj. EPS $1.52) and a 4.1% dividend hike to $1.78/share; management guides disciplined capex while signaling potential Venezuelan output growth without stretching the $18–$19B budget FT.
- Verizon — Q4 topped estimates (adj. EPS $1.09; revenue $36.4B) with net adds of 616k postpaid phone subscribers; shares trade higher pre‑market on improved subscriber momentum WSJ, AP.
- American Express — Q4 EPS $3.53 (slight miss) on revenue $18.98B (beat); 2026 EPS guidance $17.30–$17.90 and 9%–10% revenue growth as affluent spending stays resilient Reuters, Barron’s.
- Boeing — Q4 revenue $23.95B, the strongest since 2018, aided by 160 commercial deliveries and a gain on the Digital Aviation Solutions sale; backlog reached a record ~$682B MarketWatch.
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