NextFin News - March 10, 2026 | U.S. pre-market update
1) Pre-Market Performance
U.S. index futures were modestly lower ahead of the open. Nasdaq 100 futures traded at 24,969.8, down 21.25 points or 0.09%. S&P 500 futures stood at 6,789.8, down 11.25 points or 0.17%. Dow Jones futures traded at 47,705.0, down 64.0 points or 0.13%.
European equities were firmer in early trading. Germany’s DAX rose 2.12% to 23,906.54, France’s CAC 40 gained 1.50% to 8,034.34, and the UK’s FTSE 100 added 1.17% to 10,369.55, pointing to continued resilience in Europe even as U.S. futures eased.
In commodities, oil remained the main macro variable after extreme volatility at the start of the week. Brent crude had surged as high as $119.50 overnight before pulling back toward the low-$90s by early Tuesday, while WTI similarly spiked near $119.48 before retreating to roughly the low-$90s to upper-$80s range. Gold traded near $5,107 after retreating from a late-February record high, while the U.S. dollar index recently touched 99.69 intraday and the 10-year Treasury yield moved around 4.10% after a sharp geopolitical bid into energy markets. More
2) Macroeconomic Policy and Data
The latest major U.S. labor-market release showed a meaningful downside surprise. February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000, versus a consensus expectation for a 55,000 increase and after a prior gain of 130,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, above the 4.3% expectation and 4.3% prior reading. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% estimate and unchanged from the prior pace; on a year-over-year basis, wage growth accelerated to 3.8% from both the 3.7% estimate and 3.7% prior. Private payrolls dropped 86,000 against expectations for a 60,000 increase, while manufacturing payrolls fell 12,000 versus expectations for a 2,000 decline. ADP private employment for February had earlier shown a 63,000 increase, above the 50,000 consensus and 22,000 prior. ISM services for February rose to 56.1, above the 53.5 estimate and 53.8 prior, while the prices-paid component printed 63.0 versus 68.3 expected and 66.6 prior. Jobs report
For Tuesday, investors are watching the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, where consensus is 99.6 versus 99.3 previously. The next key inflation checkpoint is Wednesday’s February CPI report, with consensus at 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year for headline CPI, and 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year for core CPI. Friday’s January PCE report is expected to show headline PCE at 2.9% year over year, unchanged from the prior reading, and core PCE at 3.1% versus 3.0% previously. Details
The policy read-through is mixed. Softer payrolls and a higher unemployment rate argue for a more dovish Federal Reserve path, but stronger wage growth and the risk that the oil shock feeds back into headline inflation complicate the near-term outlook. In practice, the market is balancing two opposing forces: cooling labor demand that supports future rate cuts, and energy-driven inflation risk that could keep the Fed cautious for longer.
3) Hot News
- Oil shock begins to unwind. After crude briefly surged above $100 and touched nearly $120 overnight, prices retreated sharply as traders reassessed worst-case supply disruption scenarios. The reversal eased some immediate inflation anxiety, but energy remains the key macro driver for equities, rates and inflation expectations. Read more
- Labor data raises growth concerns. February payrolls unexpectedly contracted and unemployment edged higher, reinforcing concerns that the U.S. economy is losing momentum after a firmer January. That has pushed investors to refocus on whether weaker growth can offset the inflation impulse from higher energy prices. Read more
- Europe outperforms in early trade. Major European benchmarks advanced, led by a more than 2% rise in the DAX, suggesting risk appetite in Europe was steadier than in U.S. futures. The divergence points to regional rotation rather than broad-based panic across global equities.
- Inflation week takes center stage. With CPI due on Wednesday and PCE on Friday, investors are entering the U.S. session with a heightened sensitivity to any sign that energy volatility is feeding into broader price pressure. The combination of weaker jobs data and looming inflation releases is likely to keep rate-sensitive sectors volatile. Schedule
4) U.S. Stock Focus
- Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) — Novo Nordisk collaboration ends dispute. Hims & Hers surged after Novo Nordisk agreed to dismiss its patent lawsuit and distribute branded weight-loss medicines through the Hims platform. The agreement removes a major legal overhang and materially strengthens Hims’ obesity-treatment offering. More
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) — Telehealth distribution expands. Novo Nordisk reached a deal with Hims & Hers that will place its branded obesity drugs on the telehealth company’s platform. For investors, the move suggests Novo is prioritizing broader U.S. digital distribution while reducing litigation risk tied to compounded alternatives. More
- Nvidia (NVDA) — GTC catalyst back in focus. Nvidia remained in focus as investors positioned ahead of the company’s GTC event and watched for fresh AI chip announcements. Expectations remain centered on the next leg of data-center product launches and whether management can reinforce its lead in accelerated computing. More
- Oracle (ORCL) — TikTok structure remains strategically relevant. Oracle continues to draw attention because of its role in the newly structured U.S. TikTok entity and the potential cloud-services upside attached to that arrangement. The setup adds another avenue for growth beyond Oracle’s already fast-expanding cloud infrastructure business. More
- Apple (AAPL) — Product refresh cycle broadens. Apple remained active after its early-March product announcements, including the iPhone 17e, updated iPad Air and new Mac lineup. The latest releases reinforce Apple’s effort to stimulate hardware demand while positioning devices for a broader on-device AI cycle. More
- Tesla (TSLA) — Autonomy execution remains under scrutiny. Tesla stayed on watch as investors assessed the next stage of its robotaxi and autonomy rollout. The market focus remains less on near-term deliveries and more on whether Tesla can show measurable progress on unsupervised driving deployment in 2026. More
- Lumentum (LITE) — AI infrastructure demand theme strengthens. Lumentum has attracted renewed attention after reports of a major Nvidia investment and large purchase commitments tied to optical components. The development underscores how AI infrastructure spending is broadening beyond GPUs into networking and photonics suppliers. More
- Meta Platforms (META) — AI capex narrative remains supportive. Meta remains in focus after an expanded relationship with Nvidia around large-scale server deployments. The continued buildout supports the broader view that hyperscalers are sustaining elevated AI capital spending into 2026. More
Overall, the pre-market tone is cautious rather than disorderly: U.S. futures are slightly lower, Europe is stronger, and the biggest swing factor remains whether the sharp retreat in oil can hold long enough to relieve inflation pressure ahead of this week’s CPI and PCE data.
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