NextFin News - Published before the U.S. market open (Eastern Time).
Pre‑Market Performance
- U.S. index futures:
- Nasdaq 100 futures: 24,586.3, −439 pts (−1.75%).
- S&P 500 futures: 6,794.3, −94 pts (−1.36%).
- Dow Jones futures: 48,286, −659 pts (−1.35%).
- Europe:
- FTSE 100: 10,483.16 (−2.75%; −296.95).
- CAC 40: 8,165.25 (−2.73%; −229.07).
- DAX: 23,825.8 (−3.30%; −812.2).
- Commodities:
- Brent crude ~$85.12 (+8%); WTI ~$76.47 (+7%), as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slows sharply amid regional conflict. m.economictimes.com
- Gold ~$5,338/oz, near record highs on safe‑haven demand. fortune.com
- Forex and rates:
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) ~98.42 (+0.8%); 10‑yr U.S. Treasury yields edge up near 4.11% as markets reprice inflation risk from higher energy. barrons.com
Macroeconomic Policy and Data
- ISM Manufacturing (Feb): PMI 52.4 vs 52.6 prior; economists’ consensus 51.8. Prices paid index jumped to 70.5, the highest since mid‑2022, underscoring tariff- and energy‑related cost pressures and posing a firmer inflation impulse that could limit near‑term Fed cuts. investing.com
- PPI (Jan): +0.5% m/m and +2.9% y/y (consensus +0.3% m/m, +1.6% y/y); core services strong. Implication: upside risk for near‑term PCE inflation prints. apnews.com
- GDP (Q4 2025, advance): +1.4% SAAR (vs +4.4% in Q3), signaling growth cooled into year‑end ahead of 2026 policy and energy shocks. bea.gov
- Fed policy watch: Target range currently 3.50%–3.75%; next FOMC meeting March 17–18, 2026. Energy‑driven inflation risk and firmer long yields reduce odds of an early‑spring cut. kiplinger.com
Market Drivers
- Hormuz shipping and insurance shock — Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged, several P&I clubs have withdrawn war‑risk cover, freight rates have spiked and hundreds of vessels are idling. OPEC+ pledged a modest +206kb/d April increase that provides limited near‑term relief if flows can’t transit. Market takeaway: sustained logistics disruption risks $90–$100 oil. spglobal.com
- Oil surge broadens inflation risk — Brent/WTI jumped as Iran’s attacks and warnings deter transits; analysts warn a prolonged blockage could push crude toward $100 and lift U.S. gasoline toward $4/gal, feeding through to consumer prices. washingtonpost.com
- Rates and dollar firm — U.S. 10‑yr yields rose and the dollar strengthened as investors priced a longer inflation path amid higher energy; equity futures declined alongside Europe’s sell‑off. marketwatch.com
- Europe inflation watch — A fresh uptick in Eurozone inflation and ECB commentary highlight risks from energy spikes ahead of policy meetings later in March. ft.com
- Inflation path — January PPI upside and ISM prices‑paid gains raise the risk that energy feeds through to core prices, complicating the Fed’s March decision window. apnews.com
U.S. Stock Focus
- Amazon (AMZN) — AWS said multiple Middle East data centers (UAE and Bahrain) were damaged amid drone activity, causing outages and recovery efforts; delivery operations in Abu Dhabi were temporarily suspended. Operational risk and cloud redundancy are in focus pre‑market. washingtonpost.com
- Dell Technologies (DELL) — Beat on Q4 revenue and EPS with AI‑server demand surging; management guided above Street for the new fiscal year. AI infrastructure backlog remains elevated, keeping supply‑chain tightness in view. wsj.com
- Meta Platforms (META) — Agreed to a landmark, multi‑year AI‑chip procurement with AMD valued at >$100B (capacity up to ~6GW) and potential equity warrants, intensifying hyperscale capex diversification beyond Nvidia. wsj.com
- Alphabet (GOOGL) — Signaled 2026 capex could double to ~$175–$185B to alleviate compute constraints across Search, Cloud and Gemini, reinforcing the sector’s unprecedented AI spend trajectory. investing.com
- Nvidia (NVDA) — Began sampling its next‑gen Vera Rubin platform (Rubin GPUs with HBM4 and Vera CPUs) to customers, framing the late‑2026/2027 upgrade cycle for AI data centers. tomshardware.com
- Chevron (CVX) — Shares pushed toward record territory as crude spiked on Hormuz disruptions; energy majors are leading defensives in the current risk‑off tape. marketwatch.com
- United Airlines (UAL) — Higher jet fuel and selective airspace closures pressure airlines; investors weigh near‑term margin headwinds versus demand. marketwatch.com
- Salesforce (CRM) — Printed an earnings beat but offered measured top‑line outlook; management highlighted rising “agentic AI” adoption and buyback support, with shares volatile post‑print. wsj.com
Upcoming key U.S. data/events: Mar 5 Productivity/Unit Labor Costs; Mar 6 Feb Nonfarm Payrolls; Mar 11 Feb CPI; Mar 12 Feb PPI; Mar 13 JOLTS (Jan); Mar 17–18 FOMC. bls.gov
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