NextFin News - Nvidia’s stock price continued its downward drift on Tuesday, even as a growing cohort of Wall Street analysts revised their earnings estimates upward, creating a stark divergence between the company’s fundamental performance and its market valuation. The chipmaker, which remains the primary beneficiary of the global artificial intelligence build-out, saw its shares edge lower on April 7, 2026, extending a period of volatility that has seen the stock struggle to maintain its post-earnings momentum from February.
The disconnect is most visible in the consensus figures. According to data tracked by MarketBeat and Bloomberg, the average of 48 analysts covering the stock now calls for Nvidia to generate $8.23 in earnings per share for the current fiscal year. This optimism follows a fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter report where the company delivered $1.62 per share on $68.1 billion in revenue—figures that comfortably beat Street expectations. Despite these "stellar" results, as described by CNBC, the stock has faced persistent selling pressure, dropping roughly 5% immediately following its February report and failing to reclaim its highs in the weeks since.
Atif Malik, an analyst at Citigroup, recently raised his outlook, suggesting that Nvidia is "likely to outperform in the second half of 2026." Malik, who has maintained a consistently bullish stance on the semiconductor sector throughout the AI cycle, argues that the market is currently underestimating the demand for Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin architecture. However, Malik’s optimism is not yet a universal consensus. While heavyweights like Bank of America and Rosenblatt Securities have pushed their price targets as high as $300, other corners of the market remain fixated on supply-chain bottlenecks and geopolitical friction.
The primary drag on the stock appears to be a combination of "emotions, not logic," according to Singh, an analyst interviewed by CNBC. Investors are increasingly anxious about the sustainability of the "AI trade," a sentiment exacerbated by the stalling of a rumored $100 billion deal between Nvidia and OpenAI. Furthermore, reports of memory shortages—specifically High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) required for the Rubin chips—have given bears ammunition to argue that Nvidia’s production capacity may have hit a ceiling. This supply-side constraint, coupled with ongoing export restrictions to the Chinese market, has created a "wall of worry" that the company’s record-breaking margins may finally be at risk.
From a broader market perspective, Nvidia’s sheer size has turned it into a victim of its own success. Representing over 13% of the Nasdaq-100, the stock is often used as a liquidity tap for institutional investors looking to de-risk during periods of macro uncertainty. When U.S. President Trump’s recent comments on trade and defense spending triggered broader market jitters, Nvidia was among the first names sold, regardless of its individual earnings trajectory. This technical selling often overrides fundamental upgrades in the short term.
A more cautious view is held by analysts at Ninety One and EP Wealth Advisors, who suggest that the current selloff is a healthy "digestion" of the massive gains seen over the past two years. They point out that while earnings are growing, the "whisper numbers"—the unofficial expectations held by hedge funds—were likely even higher than the official beats, leading to a "sell the news" reaction. For these skeptics, the question isn't whether Nvidia will grow, but whether it can ever grow fast enough to satisfy a market that has priced in near-perfection. As of Tuesday afternoon, the market seems to be siding with the skeptics, leaving the fundamental bulls to wait for the next quarterly catalyst.
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