The survey, which gathered insights from 320 family offices managing an average of $1.3 billion each—representing a total wealth of $416 billion—reveals a growing unease with the concentration of wealth in US markets. For years, the relentless rally in US technology giants and the relative strength of the American economy made North America the default destination for global capital. Now, that dominance is facing a quiet challenge. George Athanasopoulos, head of global family and institutional wealth at UBS, stated that these sophisticated investors are actively seeking to diversify away from what many perceive as an overcrowded and expensive market.
Athanasopoulos, who has long advocated for global diversification and a cautious approach to highly concentrated equity portfolios, noted that the shift is not a sudden panic but a calculated realignment. Under his leadership, the UBS wealth division has increasingly emphasized the risks of over-allocation to a single region, especially as geopolitical tensions rise and fiscal policies shift under the administration of U.S. President Trump. While some analysts view this as a contrarian move that risks missing out on continued US growth, Athanasopoulos maintains that the risk-reward profile of US assets has deteriorated relative to other regions.
The planned reallocation is striking in its geographic scope. Western Europe is poised to be the primary beneficiary of this capital flight, with a significant portion of surveyed family offices planning to increase their allocations to the region over the next five years. Asia-Pacific, particularly Japan and selective emerging markets, is also seeing a resurgence in interest. This geographic pivot is accompanied by a structural shift in asset classes. Rather than simply moving from US equities to European equities, family offices are heavily favoring private debt and infrastructure. Private debt, in particular, has emerged as a favored substitute for traditional fixed income, offering attractive yields and lower volatility in an environment of persistent inflation.
This strategy is not without its critics. Many institutional strategists argue that betting against the US economy has historically been a losing proposition. The depth, liquidity, and technological leadership of US capital markets remain unmatched globally. Even with high valuations, the US corporate sector continues to generate superior earnings growth compared to its European and Asian counterparts. Some wealth managers suggest that the planned cuts in US exposure may turn out to be more of a tactical rebalancing than a permanent structural shift, especially if the deregulation and tax policies of the Trump administration continue to fuel corporate profitability.
Nevertheless, the concerns driving this wealth revamp are deeply rooted in macroeconomic realities. The US national debt, which has continued to climb, is a primary source of anxiety for long-term wealth preservation. Family offices, which operate on multi-generational horizons, are uniquely sensitive to the long-term implications of fiscal instability and currency debasement. This has led to a renewed interest in real assets, including gold and high-quality real estate, as hedges against potential systemic shocks. The UBS report highlights that while the US dollar remains the undisputed global reserve currency, the appetite for holding dollar-denominated paper assets is undergoing a subtle but clear transition.
Explore more exclusive insights at nextfin.ai.
