NextFin news, The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on Thursday, October 9, 2025, published a detailed study on the economic consequences of Hurricane Michael, which struck the Florida Panhandle on October 10, 2018. The research focuses on Bay County, a region severely affected by the hurricane, to better understand the disaster's impact on residents' mobility and community resilience.
Hurricane Michael caused catastrophic damage in Bay County, including a storm surge up to 14 feet that drowned five residents, destruction of over 1,500 structures, and damage to more than 45,000 buildings and two hospitals. Winds exceeded 160 mph at landfall, resulting in estimated damages of $25 billion, according to a 2019 NOAA report.
Atlanta Fed researchers analyzed anonymized credit data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Equifax Consumer Credit Panel to track migration patterns of Bay County residents in the three years following the hurricane. The study compared Bay County to nearby Escambia County, which was not affected by the storm, to isolate the hurricane's effects on out-migration.
Findings indicate that Bay County residents exposed to Hurricane Michael were 3 percent more likely to move within one year and 3.8 percent more likely within three years post-storm compared to residents in Escambia County, after controlling for demographic factors. Notably, unlike typical post-disaster trends, researchers observed no significant return migration to Bay County during this period.
The study also revealed that displaced residents tended to relocate to neighborhoods with higher levels of economic distress than their pre-storm communities. Those from higher-quality neighborhoods moved to even better areas, while those from more deprived neighborhoods moved to areas with greater deprivation, based on metrics including income, education, employment, housing, and occupation.
These insights aim to inform the Atlanta Fed's ongoing efforts under the Community Reinvestment Act to encourage banks to support credit needs in federally designated disaster areas. For example, banks may receive CRA consideration for loans or services that help rehabilitate housing or construct affordable housing to stabilize affected communities.
Dontá Council, a shocks and stressors expert at the Atlanta Fed's Community and Economic Development department, led the research alongside Seumalu Elora Raymond of Georgia Institute of Technology and Pearse Haley of the Atlanta Fed. Their discussion paper, "Through the Eye of the Storm: Post-Hurricane Migration in Florida's Panhandle," was released in May 2025.
The Atlanta Fed has a long history of researching hurricane impacts across its Sixth District, which includes coastal states vulnerable to such natural disasters. The Bank collaborates with other Federal Reserve Banks, such as the San Francisco Fed and New York Fed, to deepen understanding of disaster-related economic effects and to develop policy recommendations.
Council emphasized the importance of consolidating research-driven insights to support effective disaster preparedness and recovery at local and national levels. The Atlanta Fed's work highlights disaster recovery as a window into long-term economic resilience, focusing on migration, credit access, and community stability.
For further information, contact Dontá Council at donta.council@atl.frb.org or Pearse Haley at pearse.haley@atl.frb.org.
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