NextFin News - On December 23, 2025, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures held firm above important 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), as markets reacted positively to two major developments: Nvidia’s announcement regarding the resumption of H200 AI chip shipments to China, and growing bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March. The news was reported during the Asian trading session and reflected a broader improvement in risk sentiment fueled by easing US-China trade tensions and softer U.S. economic data.
Nvidia, a key technology giant, disclosed plans to ship its advanced H200 chips to Chinese clients before the Lunar New Year in mid-February, following a policy reversal by the Trump administration that allowed such exports subject to a 25% fee. This shift marked a significant relaxation after prior restrictions and was reported by CN Wire. The resumption of these shipments highlights a subtle thawing in US-China relations, coinciding with Goldman Sachs raising China’s 2025 GDP forecast from 4.5% to 5.0%, matching Beijing’s own target.
Simultaneously, speculation intensified around a March interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve under U.S. President Trump, driven by easing inflation and a weakening labor market. November CPI unexpectedly dropped to 2.7% from 3.0% in September, and U.S. unemployment increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. The CME FedWatch Tool placed the probability of a rate cut in March above 50%, reflecting market optimism for more accommodative Fed policy, potentially reinforced by expectations of a dovish incoming Fed Chair.
Against this backdrop, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures advanced by 28 points, the S&P 500 E-mini rose by 5 points, while Dow Jones E-mini remained relatively flat but above key technical support. Japanese government and U.S. Treasury yields eased, which helped bolster appetite for risk assets, although USD/JPY depreciated amid intervention concerns, impacting the Nikkei 225’s gains.
The interplay of technological exports resumption and monetary policy expectations underlines an ecosystem in flux. First, Nvidia’s access to the Chinese market not only symbolizes a strategic trade détente but also fuels the demand for high-capital expenditure technology stocks, which constitute a major weighting in the Nasdaq 100 index. It signals higher revenue visibility for Nvidia and similar semiconductor sectors, instigating positive reassessments of earnings growth potential.
Secondly, the Fed rate cut speculation arises from tangible signs of economic softening: lower headline inflation, rising unemployment, and a notable loss of full-time jobs reported in the October-November period, the lowest labor force employment levels since mid-2021. These macroeconomic shifts compel market participants to price in easier financial conditions to sustain corporate earnings and valuation multiples.
Technically, maintaining levels above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs provides a constructive medium-term technical bias for the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices. Key resistance levels to watch include the December 12 record highs for Dow (48,917 points) and October 30 records for Nasdaq (26,399 points) and S&P 500 (6,954 points). Support lies near the 50-day EMAs—47,484 for Dow and 25,225 for Nasdaq—critical for validating ongoing bullish momentum.
Forward-looking, the sustainability of this positive momentum will depend on upcoming U.S. economic data releases, particularly GDP growth trends and labor market reports, as well as any surprises in Federal Reserve communications. Should the Fed signal a readiness to cut rates aggressively in March or beyond, it could further fuel equity valuations. However, upside risks include unexpected resilience in U.S. economic metrics that might delay or reduce the scale of monetary easing.
Additionally, external factors such as Bank of Japan’s potential policy adjustments could induce volatility. A move towards a neutral interest rate by the BoJ between 1.5% and 2%, as speculated, may trigger yen appreciation and carry trade unwinds, negatively impacting the Nikkei 225 and risk appetite globally.
In the context of U.S. President Trump’s administration, the alignment of cautious trade liberalization with market-friendly monetary policy bets reflects a broader geopolitical and macroeconomic recalibration impacting the equity markets. The tech sector’s rally on Nvidia news, supported by easing geopolitical frictions, coupled with expectations for lower borrowing costs, presents a nuanced bullish scenario for U.S. stock futures.
Market participants are advised to closely monitor USD/JPY trends and intervention signals, along with the New Year economic data releases, to gauge the direction of risk sentiment and validate whether the current bullish technical setup endures into early 2026.
In summary, the interplay of Nvidia’s new shipment plans, easing US-China trade restrictions, and Fed rate cut bets combines technical and fundamental factors that currently uphold gains in the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures. While risks remain, the outlook leans bullish over the short to medium term, reflecting adaptive market positioning to shifts in global trade and monetary policy dynamics under U.S. President Trump.
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