NextFin news, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) announced on Thursday, September 25, 2025, that it has lowered its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2025 from 3.3% to 2.5%. The revision reflects the continuing economic impact of the war with Russia and related uncertainties.
The EBRD's updated forecast was detailed in a report highlighting that Ukraine's economic outlook remains highly uncertain, depending heavily on the course of the war, energy security, and sustained international support. The bank maintained its 2026 growth projection at 5.0%, assuming the conflict will have ended by then.
According to the report, Ukraine's GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, driven primarily by consumption and investment in critical infrastructure. However, growth is constrained by labor shortages, damage to energy infrastructure, and weak agricultural exports.
The unemployment rate in Ukraine has fallen to a wartime low of 12%, but recruitment challenges persist due to ongoing mobilization and emigration. The current account deficit increased by nearly 50% in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting high imports of military and energy products alongside weak exports. External financing needs are expected to reach approximately US$40 billion.
Inflation remains elevated, driven by food and utility prices and rising real wages, though it has gradually declined from 15.9% in May to 13.2% in August 2025.
The EBRD's forecast revision comes amid broader economic challenges in Ukraine. The National Bank of Ukraine projects a significant budget deficit of 22% of GDP in 2025, with a slow reduction to 19% in 2026, largely due to substantial defense expenditures. The National Bank expects overall economic growth of 2.1% for 2025, while Economy Minister Oleksii Sobolev has suggested it could be as low as 2.0%.
These figures and projections were reported by Interfax-Ukraine and published by Ukrainska Pravda, citing the EBRD's official economic reports.
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