NextFin news, New Delhi: Indian stock markets are poised for significant activity this week starting Monday, as investors closely monitor key global and domestic developments that are expected to influence market sentiment and direction.
The US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for Wednesday is a major event, with market experts widely anticipating a 25 basis points interest rate cut. A larger cut of 50 basis points, though less expected, could further boost global and Indian market sentiment. The Fed's current policy rate stands at 4.25%-4.50%.
Alongside the Fed decision, updates on India's trade negotiations with the United States and the European Union will be under scrutiny. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal recently stated that discussions on an India-US trade deal are ongoing, with the first phase potentially finalized by November. Talks on the India-EU trade deal are also reported to be at an advanced stage.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) activity remains a key market driver. In the last five trading sessions, FIIs were net buyers in two sessions, including inflows of Rs 129.58 crore on Friday, indicating a gradual positive trend. However, overall FII positioning in index futures remains cautious, with a predominance of short positions.
Domestic market performance last week was strong, with the Nifty gaining 373 points (1.51%) to close at 25,114 and the Sensex rising 1,193.94 points (1.48%) to end at 81,904.70. Analysts suggest focusing on domestic cyclicals such as autos, metals, and consumer discretionary sectors, balanced with defensive stocks in FMCG and pharmaceuticals.
On the technical front, the Nifty has tested its previous swing high near 25,150, with immediate support at 24,800 and a stronger cushion at the 100-day exponential moving average (DEMA) around 24,650. The Bank Nifty is near resistance at 55,000, with potential for a breakout to 56,200 if resistance is breached.
Additionally, India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data for August, to be released on Monday, will provide insights into input cost pressures ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting later this month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation recently rose to 2.07% in August from 1.61% in July, marking the first increase in ten months.
Oil prices have remained stable, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closing at $62 per barrel last week, influenced by supply disruptions and geopolitical factors.
Overall, the coming week is expected to be critical for Indian equity markets as global monetary policy, trade negotiations, inflation data, and foreign investment flows converge to shape investor sentiment and market trends.
Sources: The Hans India (September 14, 2025), IANS LIVE (September 14, 2025), Free Press Journal (September 14, 2025), Upstox (September 14, 2025)
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