NextFin News - Germany’s political landscape is experiencing a significant shift as Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government faces an unprecedented decline in public support against the backdrop of a strengthening far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. On December 7, 2025, reports from Bloomberg via RBC-Ukraine highlighted that Chancellor Merz’s approval rating has fallen to historic lows, with only 16% of Germans favoring him as a candidate for the next federal elections. This stark erosion of confidence comes amid heightened political tensions within the ruling CDU/CSU and SPD coalition, which is bogged down by internal rivalry and lack of policy progress.
Germany’s economic outlook further exacerbates this decline. The government recently downgraded the country’s GDP growth projection to under 1% for 2025, a reflection of sustained structural challenges, geopolitical frictions, and lingering aftereffects of global supply chain disruptions. Chancellor Merz entered office pledging economic revival, infrastructure renewal, tighter migration controls, and enhanced military capabilities. Yet, to date, tangible achievements in these domains remain elusive.
The escalating influence of the AfD compounds these woes. The right-wing populist and pro-Russian party has gained notable traction in several eastern federal states, particularly Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt, where it is polling close to or above 40%. These regions' historical contexts and socio-economic vulnerabilities contribute to fertile ground for the AfD’s nationalist and anti-establishment messaging. If the AfD secures regional government roles in 2026, it would mark their first such power acquisition at the state level in Germany.
Political analysts attribute the rise of the AfD to multiple causative factors. Foremost among them is the Merkel-era migration policies’ backlash, which Chancellor Merz has addressed with contentious rhetoric emphasizing large-scale deportations. Such statements, perceived by many as stigmatizing, have fueled divisions and amplified extremist narratives. Simultaneously, the ruling coalition's inertia in addressing persistent infrastructural deficits—such as delayed trains, deteriorating bridges, and highway closures—deepens public disenchantment.
Internally, Merz’s CDU/CSU coalition grapples with maintaining a united stance against the AfD. Although officially committed to a 'firewall' policy refusing cooperation or coalition with the far right, significant cracks have appeared. Some conservative voices argue for a recalibration to engage the AfD politically to mitigate its outsider appeal and curb its ascendance. However, Merz himself has publicly reaffirmed a strict non-cooperation stance, emphasizing fundamental ideological incompatibilities with the AfD.
The phenomenon is not isolated to Germany. The rise of nationalist and pro-Russian populism echoes broader European trends amid crude geopolitical tensions, notably due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the shifting dynamics under U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. The AfD’s alignment with Russia-friendly positions complicates Germany’s foreign policy balancing act, especially within NATO and the European Union frameworks.
Looking ahead, 2026 is poised to be a decisive year. The effectiveness of Merz’s promised economic reforms, many slated for implementation beginning January, will be closely scrutinized. Concurrently, the regional elections in pivotal eastern states will serve as a barometer for the AfD’s legislative and executive ambitions. If the AfD captures governing power, it could disrupt not only regional policy but also national political discourse and coalition-building processes.
For Chancellor Merz, reversing the current political trajectory requires addressing the dual challenges of economic stagnation and societal polarization. Strategic investments in infrastructure, transparent and inclusive migration policies, and reinforcing democratic institutions against extremism will be critical. Moreover, managing coalition cohesion and navigating the contentious debate over engaging with the AfD will demand political acumen.
In summary, Chancellor Merz’s government stands at a crossroads. The historical low approval ratings reflect widespread voter disenchantment, while the AfD’s surge signals a growing appetite for radical alternatives in the face of perceived governmental dysfunction. The interplay between internal coalition dynamics, economic imperatives, and geopolitical pressures will shape Germany’s political stability and democratic integrity in the near future.
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